Kreate Q4'25 preview: Outlook is the most interesting aspect of the report

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/30/2026 at 7:50 am EET.

Source: Inderes

Kreate will publish its 2025 financial statements on Friday, February 6. We expect the company's revenue to settle at the upper end of the guidance range, bolstered by a robust order book and the healthy progress of its Swedish operations. We predict that the positive profitability trend continued in the fourth quarter. We estimate that profitability for the entire year will be close to the midpoint of the guidance range. Profitability is affected by personnel investments made early in the year, which have weighed on margins for the entire year. Our focus in the report is on the outlook and guidance for the 2026 financial year, during which we expect the company to experience strong growth thanks to a robust order book, the acquisition of SRV Infra, and the launch of several major projects.

Order book supports volume development and profitability in our forecasts

We predict that Kreate’s revenue has grown by approximately 18% year-on-year in Q4 to 89.1 MEUR. We expect 2025 full-year revenue to reach approximately 310 MEUR, which is at the upper end of the company's guidance range of 290–310 MEUR. The key driver of growth has been the very strong order book, which at the end of Q3 was 58% higher than in the comparison period. Business in Sweden, in particular, has continued to grow strongly, and it now accounts for nearly 15% of the group's revenue. In Finland, the order book has been supported by several multi-year transport infrastructure and structural engineering projects, even though the market situation has remained challenging in certain segments.

We expect Kreate's Q4 EBITA to have been 3.8 MEUR, corresponding to a 4.3% margin. For the full year of 2025, we estimate EBITA to be 10.1 MEUR, which is in the middle of the company's guidance range of 9–11 MEUR. Profitability this year has been burdened by the company's front-loaded personnel investments, which have prepared for the implementation phases of future major projects. On the other hand, higher margins than the group average in the Swedish business and growing volumes are supporting earnings development.

Focus on outlook and guidance

In our view, Kreate has a very strong starting point for 2026, and we expect the company to provide guidance for significant growth in both revenue and results for the year ahead. The acquisition of SRV Infra at the end of 2025 will accelerate growth and bring Kreate new expertise in underground rock construction. Additionally, the company's order book has been reinforced with the 152 MEUR contract signed in early 2026 for implementing the second phase of the Tampere passenger railway yard, as well as the Vantaa tramway eastern section project, which was confirmed at the end of 2025. From an investor's perspective, figures relating to SRV Infra, which will likely be disclosed with the report, will also be of interest.

With regard to dividends, we predict that Kreate's board will propose a dividend of EUR 0.51 per share (2024: EUR 0.50). Although the SRV Infra transaction will temporarily raise the company's debt ratio above the target level (net debt/EBITDA <2.5x), we believe that Kreate's capital-light business model and improving earnings outlook will enable continued increased dividend distribution. The company's dividend policy is to distribute at least half of its net earnings, and our dividend forecast would correspond to a distribution ratio of approximately 70% of the projected 2025 result.