Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/28/2026 at 7:46 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Vara Research (8 estimates, consensus)

Kalmar will publish its Q1 report on Tuesday, May 5. We expect Kalmar's order intake to have been good, though slightly lower than in the comparison period. Conversely, we forecast that the company’s earnings have risen significantly, supported by deliveries from the order book. In the report, we are most interested in the comments about market developments and the potential impact of the situation in the Middle East on the company. 

We expect operational leverage to have supported earnings development

The company's order book stood at a slightly higher level at the end of Q4 than in the comparison period (977 MEUR, +2% y/y). However, we estimate that the increased order book for Services (+13% y/y) and the delivery of larger straddle carrier orders in H1'25 clearly supported revenue development. Reflecting this, we estimate that the company's revenue in Q1 grew by almost 15%, despite currency headwinds. However, we note that there is uncertainty regarding the timing of larger deliveries. Our expectations are slightly higher than the consensus (consensus +8% y/y). This difference is primarily driven by equipment revenue, which we believe is due to the timing of deliveries (cf. our 2026 equipment revenue estimate is practically in line with the consensus).

Reflecting the operational leverage from revenue growth, we estimate that Kalmar's adjusted EBIT has increased to 60.0 MEUR, corresponding to a margin of 13.1%. In addition to operational leverage, we believe the progress of the Driving Excellence program supported the company’s year-on-year margin development. In connection with the program, the company had achieved annual gross savings of approximately 34 MEUR by the end of Q4, particularly through more efficient procurement. Our earnings and margin forecasts are higher than the consensus as well, which we also attribute to our higher delivery expectations. Our forecasts and the consensus forecasts do not include one-time items for the first months of the year. We estimate that the cost burden on the lower lines has remained at normal levels, and based on this, we predict that the reported earnings per share will have settled at EUR 0.69 (consensus EUR 0.64).

We estimate order intake slightly below the strong comparison period

During the pre-silent period call, the company noted that the demand environment has remained unchanged so far compared to the outlook provided in connection with the Q4 result, despite the instability caused by the situation in the Middle East. At that time, the company expected total demand in H1’26 to remain roughly the same as in H2’25. On the other hand, according to our estimates, the company has accumulated slightly fewer order announcements scheduled for Q1 so far than in the comparison period (Q1’26: 3 announcements; one significant, one large, and one smaller vs. Q1'25: 1 significant, 2 large). However, it is not advisable to draw overly strong conclusions from order announcements because of their timing (especially in the case of large equipment orders) or any possible delays related to them. Taking the overall picture into account, we estimate that the order intake in Q1 was at a good level of 461 MEUR but decreased from the record levels in Q4 (511 MEUR) and the strong comparison period (480 MEUR), in line with the order announcements and currency headwinds. Our order estimate is slightly below consensus (consensus 467 MEUR).

Our attention is focused on market developments

In its 2026 guidance, Kalmar expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5%. In our opinion, the guidance is on the conservative side, and based on the company's comments, it can be seen as indicating a minimum level of development (cf. 2025 adj. EBIT-% 12.8%). Prior to the report, we forecast a full-year margin of 13.3% (consensus: 13.4%). We therefore see opportunities for the company to raise its guidance as the year progresses but expect it to reiterate its guidance in connection with its Q1 report. We also estimate that the company will reiterate its expectation that overall demand will remain at the same level over the next six months, despite the prevailing uncertainty. In the report, however, we will closely monitor the company’s comments on market conditions in various geographic regions, taking into account the situation in the Middle East (incl. potential cost inflation). We discussed the company's demand outlook in more detail in our comment following the pre-silent period call and do not assume any material changes have occurred. Additionally, we are paying close attention to the activity of connected devices and the progress of the Driving Excellence program.