Translation: Original published in Finnish on 06/24/2026 at 07:10 am EEST

On Tuesday, Kalmar held an analyst and investor call ahead of the Q2 silent period. The company commented that the demand landscape remained relatively stable compared to the outlook provided with the Q1 results. Various market estimates also remained almost unchanged, and the company's comments on the situation in the Middle East did not bring about a significant change to the previous overall picture. Kalmar will publish its Q2 results on July 22.

The demand picture appears to have remained stable

During the call, the company gave us the impression that the demand outlook it provided with its Q1 report has not changed. At that time, Kalmar expected overall market demand to remain at approximately the same level as in previous quarters over the next six months, even though trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty could still affect the market and end-customer demand. On the back of this, we estimate that overall demand has remained stable across different end-customer segments. 

Kalmar commented that European demand remained at its previous level, and based on the call, there have been no significant changes in customer activity in ports and terminals, industry, or heavy logistics. Overall, the comments thus support the picture of a continued stable demand environment. For the Americas, attention remains focused on spare parts sales in the Services segment in North America, which weighed on Q1 performance. The company commented that a quick turnaround is not expected in Services, but the situation is expected to improve gradually.

Based on order announcements, the picture is still limited

However, we estimate the company has accumulated fewer order announcements for Q2 so far than in the comparison period (Q2’26: 3, of which one quite large and two smaller). However, one should not draw overly strong conclusions from order announcements due to their timing and related delays. 

In our view, the order announcements and market commentary to date may create slight downward pressure, especially on the consensus order estimate (465 MEUR), which anticipates slight growth from the comparison period. Our order estimate (450 MEUR), on the other hand, is at the level of the comparison period, i.e., already below the consensus. However, we will review potential updates to orders in more detail in connection with the Q2 preview.

Direct impacts of the Middle East situation are still limited

Regarding the situation in the Middle East, we feel the company's comments did not bring any material revision to the previous overall picture. In connection with Q1, Kalmar commented that the situation had some regional effects, but the direct effects at group level remained minor. Based on the call, the situation still appears limited in the overall picture, and the company did not indicate that it had substantially changed the demand outlook.

In our view, the risk remains that the situation will be prolonged, which could affect Kalmar's operating environment, especially through global economic growth, inflation, and logistics and fuel costs. For the time being, however, the comments do not warrant any changes to our view on the direct impact of the Middle East situation on Kalmar.

Market indicators remain relatively stable

During the call, the company also presented the latest market indicators, which, on the whole, remained relatively stable. IMF’s forecast for global GDP growth is still around 3% annually in the coming years. Meanwhile, in its latest forecast, Drewry predicted that global container traffic growth would be 2.1% this year (1.8% at the time of Kalmar’s Q1 report) and rise to 3.0% next year (previously 3.6%). Forecasts for industrial production, in turn, had decreased slightly to 3.0% for 2026 (previously 3.2%) and to 3.4% for 2027 (previously 3.6%). The forecast for retail and wholesale production decreased to 2.4% for the current year (previously 2.8%), while forecasts for the coming years remained at around 3%.

Overall, market indicators still support a stable demand picture, but in our view, there is no reason to expect a clear market-driven recovery in the short term. In our view, the main message of the call was thus fairly neutral. The demand environment appears to have remained stable, and the company did not indicate any significant revision to the market outlook provided with Q1.