HCA Red Flag: Ørsted delivers the DKK 5.4 billion expected by the market (AI)
HC Andersen Capital
Summary
- Ørsted's Q2 2026 operating profit before depreciation was DKK 5,435 million, slightly exceeding the expected DKK 5.4 billion, driven by construction revenue rather than offshore wind farms.
- Earnings from operational offshore wind farms decreased by 3% despite a 17% increase in electricity production and higher UK electricity prices, with growth attributed to construction revenue from Hornsea 3.
- Net income fell to DKK 0.7 billion due to a DKK 1.2 billion markdown on US projects and a 44% tax rate, resulting in earnings per share of DKK 0.4, half of the expected DKK 0.8.
- Ørsted maintained its 2026 forecast of over DKK 28 billion, with a new dividend policy set for 2026 to 2028, and a legal claim of DKK 4.4 billion was resolved favorably.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in undefined 13/08/2026, 06:19 GMT. Give feedback here.
Red Flag · First reading of the financial report · AI-generated content
Ørsted (ORSTED) · Q2 2026 · August 13
The share price has fallen 10% in 3 months and is 14% below its 12-month peak
Overall assessment
Slightly positive assessment
Positive assessmentBalancedNegative assessment
Ørsted reached the crucial figure, an operating profit before depreciation of DKK 5,435 million vs. an expected approx. DKK 5.4 billion, and a legal claim of DKK 4.4 billion was dropped in the quarter, so the share should open stronger. The catch: it was construction revenue, not offshore wind farms, that generated the growth.
Red flags in the financial report
Offshore wind farms earned less than last year
Offshore wind farms in operation DKK 4,653 million · one year ago DKK 4,814 million
Earnings from Ørsted's operational offshore wind farms fell by 3%, even though they produced 17% more electricity, with above-normal wind for the quarter and UK electricity prices 28% higher. The group's growth instead came from construction revenue from Hornsea 3, the British offshore wind farm where Ørsted has sold half, which contributed DKK 0.5 billion.
Earnings per share were half of what was expected
Actual DKK 0.4 · Expected approx. DKK 0.8
A markdown of DKK 1.2 billion on Sunrise Wind and Revolution Wind in the US, triggered by higher long-term US interest rates, and a tax rate of 44% for the half-year pulled net income down to DKK 0.7 billion from DKK 3.4 billion. This is the third consecutive quarter where operating profit holds up, while the bottom line does not.
The forecast was not raised, and some parts worsened
Forecast for 2026: over DKK 28 billion, unchanged
Ørsted maintained its 2026 target of more than DKK 28 billion and downgraded the outlook for Bioenergy and Other from "on par" to "lower" after a provision on the company's gas storage facilities. With DKK 15.0 billion in hand by mid-year, the second half must deliver around DKK 16 billion to meet analysts' expectations, vs. DKK 11.2 billion the previous year.
Positive signs in the financial report
A claim of DKK 4.4 billion is finally gone
Risk removed: DKK 4.4 billion, no provision
On June 25, the Maritime and Commercial Court ruled in favor of Ørsted in the Elsam cases concerning electricity prices, and the approximately 1,100 plaintiffs have decided not to appeal. Ørsted had not provisioned a single DKK for the claim, so the risk leaves the balance sheet without cost.
Ørsted hit the number that decided the financial report
Actual DKK 5,435 million · Expected approx. DKK 5,400 million
Operating profit before depreciation increased by 2% to DKK 5,435 million, thus slightly exceeding analysts' expectations, while the half-year reached DKK 15.0 billion, an increase of 8%. Offshore wind production rose by 23% to 11.2 terawatt-hours, as Borkum Riffgrund 3 in Germany and Greater Changhua 4 in Taiwan became operational.
The dividend has finally taken shape
New: dividend policy for 2026 to 2028
Ørsted has set a policy for 2026 to 2028: first payout in 2027, increasing annually, and a promise to consider returning more capital if the company is overcapitalized after 2027. The credit key figure reached 44.6% vs. a target of over 30%, but the actual amount awaits the 2026 annual report in February.
Disclaimer: This is an HCA AI-generated research comment based solely on the company's published financial report. The comment does not constitute investment advice and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in shares involves a risk of loss. Seek professional advice. /HC Andersen Capital, 08.16, 13.08.2026