HCA Red Flag: Darzalex forces Genmab to raise its 2026 forecast (AI)
HC Andersen Capital
Summary
- Genmab raised its 2026 revenue forecast to MUSD 4,325-4,525, surpassing analysts' expectations by MUSD 91, driven by increased sales estimates for DARZALEX.
- The net profit of MUSD 303 exceeded expectations due to a tax benefit, while profit before tax fell 30% to MUSD 295, highlighting concerns about profit quality.
- Operating cash flow significantly decreased to MUSD 54 from MUSD 349 the previous year, impacted by interest expenses and a decrease in payables.
- AbbVie withdrew its U.S. trade complaint against Genmab's Rina-S, removing the threat of an import ban, though the case will continue in district court.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in undefined 06/08/2026, 15:18 GMT. Give feedback here.
Red Flag first reading of Genmab's Q2 2026 financial report, published August 6, with overall assessment, three red flags, and three green flags.
Red Flag · First reading of the financial report · AI-generated content
HCA Red Flag: Genmab raises 2026 guidance due to Darzalex developments (AI)
Genmab (GMAB) · Q2 2026 · August 6
The share price has risen by approximately 10% in 3 months and is approximately 16% below its peak over the past year
Overall assessment
Positive assessment
Positive assessment Balanced Negative assessment
The share should open higher: Genmab has raised its revenue forecast for 2026 to MUSD 4,325-4,525, with the midpoint MUSD 91 above analysts' figures. The counterpoint is the quality of the profit, as the net profit of MUSD 303 came from a tax benefit and not from operations.
Red flags in the financial report
Profit exceeding expectations came from tax benefits
Profit before tax MUSD 295 · Previous year MUSD 423
The net profit of MUSD 303 exceeded the MUSD 210 analysts expected, but profit before tax fell 30% to MUSD 295. The difference is a tax benefit of MUSD 8 vs. a tax expense of MUSD 87 in the previous year, relying on a rate of 3.6%, which Genmab itself calls unrepresentative for future periods.
Costs are shifted to the second half of the year
Cost forecast MUSD 2,810-2,950 · Previously MUSD 2,710-2,910
Genmab spent MUSD 664 on operations in the quarter, MUSD 37 less than expected, but still raised the full-year cost framework by MUSD 100 at both ends. This shifts MUSD 1,540-1,680 to the second half of the year vs. MUSD 1,270 in the first, and the profit ceiling fell from MUSD 1,400 to MUSD 1,385.
Operating cash flow is almost gone
Operating cash flow MUSD 54 · Previous year MUSD 349
The first half transformed an operating profit of MUSD 555 into just MUSD 54 in operating cash flow vs. MUSD 349 in the previous year. Interest expenses of MUSD 191 and a decrease in payables of MUSD 269 consumed the funds, and only MUSD 125 was repaid on a debt of MUSD 5,135.
Green flags in the financial report
Forecast raised above analysts' figures
Revenue forecast MUSD 4,325-4,525 · Expected MUSD 4,334
Genmab raised its revenue forecast for 2026 to MUSD 4,325-4,525 after the company increased its sales estimate for DARZALEX, the multiple myeloma drug that Johnson & Johnson sells and pays royalties to Genmab for, from BUSD 16.0 to BUSD 16.7. The new midpoint of MUSD 4,425 is MUSD 91 above the MUSD 4,334 analysts had already anticipated.
EPKINLY is now growing faster than royalty revenues
EPKINLY MUSD 175 · Previous year MUSD 121
Sales of EPKINLY, the lymphoma drug Genmab sells together with AbbVie, increased by 45% to MUSD 175 in the quarter. The forecast for Genmab's own product sales now starts at MUSD 595, exceeding the MUSD 555 that was the ceiling in February, and this revenue will continue when royalty income from DARZALEX expires.
AbbVie has dropped its import case against Rina-S
New: US trade complaint withdrawn
AbbVie has withdrawn the complaint it filed with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) to block the import of Rina-S, the ovarian cancer drug Genmab now has in five Phase 3 trials. The threat of an import ban on the company's biggest launch in 2027 is thus gone, but AbbVie will resume the case in a district court.
Disclaimer: This is an HCA AI-generated research comment based solely on the company's published financial report. The comment does not constitute investment advice and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in shares involves a risk of loss. Seek professional advice. /HC Andersen Capital, 17.15, 06.08.2026