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Analyst Comment

Gubra FY2025 – Clinical progress the focus in 2026 after record year with AbbVie partnership

By Philip CoombesEquity Research Analyst
Gubra

Summary

  • Gubra reported a record FY 2025, driven by a significant partnership with AbbVie for the ABBV-295 obesity candidate, including a USD 350m upfront payment and potential milestone payments up to USD 1.85bn.
  • The Discovery & Partnerships segment is the primary value driver, with ABBV-295 in Phase 1 studies and expected to enter Phase 2 trials towards the end of 2026, potentially unlocking further milestone payments.
  • Gubra plans to advance its self-owned obesity candidate, UCN2, into Phase 1 clinical trials in humans in H1 2026, following promising pre-clinical results.
  • The CRO segment faced a 7% revenue decline in 2025 but showed q/q growth in Q4, with 2026 guidance indicating a 5-15% growth and an EBIT margin of 20-25%.

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Gubra published its FY 2025 financial statements this morning, highlighting its record year driven by its large partnership agreement with AbbVie for its ABBV-295 amylin-based obesity candidate. The agreement from March 2025 with an upfront payment of USD 350m, milestone payments of up to USD 1.85bn and ongoing royalties to Gubra.

The Discovery & Partnerships segment is currently the largest value driver for Gubra, and while ABBV-295 data read-outs are now in the hands of AbbVie, the Swiss-based pharma company announced on its own earning call that ABBV-295 is the company’s first and key obesity investment. AbbVie shared that ABBV-295 remains in two Phase 1 studies in overweight and obese patients and is expected to start phase 2 trials towards the end of 2026. We expect that clinical progress could unlock a smaller part of the outstanding milestone potential (despite no official confirmation from Gubra).

The annual report also outlined clinical progression plans for the second key (self-owned) obesity candidate, UCN2, focused on healthy weight loss. Gubra expects UCN2 to enter Phase 1 clinical trials in humans in H1 2026. UCN2 has demonstrated the ability to reduce fat mass while maintaining muscle mass in pre-clinical studies, giving it a differentiated profile within the obesity treatment market. 

Gubra’s other business unit, CRO, faced cyclical headwinds in 2025; CRO revenue declined an estimated 7% YoY to ~DKK 205m, in line with the revised guidance of 5-10% below 2024 levels. However, Q4 2025 showed a return to q/q revenue growth in the CRO business, and company guidance for 2026E suggests a return to growth at 5-15% with an EBIT margin of 20-25% (15% FY 2025).

Headline results were as follows:
Group revenue was DKK 2,637m (2024: DKK 266m, +892% y/y) with adjusted EBIT of DKK 2,221m (2024: DKK -42m), an adjusted EBIT margin of 84% (2024: -16%).
Biotech (D&P) revenue came in at DKK 2,444m (2024: DKK 46m, +>5,000% y/y) with adjusted EBIT of DKK 2,193m (2024: DKK -109m), an adjusted EBIT margin of ~90%.
CRO revenue was DKK 193m (2024: DKK 220m, -13% y/y), with adjusted EBIT of DKK 28m (2024: DKK 67m, -58% y/y) and an adjusted EBIT margin of 15% (2024: 30%).

 The key focus in 2026, therefore, remains on clinical developments, potential milestone unlocks from the AbbVie partnership, and the first human data from UCN2.

We will be holding an event with management on Tuesday, where the focus will be on the 2026 outlook in CRO, the pipeline, including in particular UNC2, which has just been moved to clinical trials. Register here: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gubra-praesentation-af-arsregnskabet-for-2025

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gubra for a digitalIR/corporate visibility subscription agreement. / Philip Coombes 12:20 27/02/2026 

Gubra is a pharmaceutical company. The company's operations are focused on the early stages of drug development. They primarily conduct research and development in the area of metabolic and fibrotic diseases. The company's product portfolio includes several brands and drugs, and the operations are conducted on a global level, with the largest presence in North America and the Nordic region. The headquarters are located in Hørsholm, Denmark.

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