Analyst Comment
GRK's guidance upgrade confirmed the company has stayed on expected course
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/19/2025 at 7:10 am EEST.
GRK's guidance raise and its magnitude were well in line with our expectations, as our current forecasts are within the new guidance ranges for both revenue and adjusted EBIT. Therefore, the positive earnings warning does not create immediate pressure for changes to our short-term forecasts for GRK, but in our view, it does slightly reduce forecast risks and the share's risk level.
GRK's projects have gone well and the company has also succeeded in new sales
GRK issued a guidance upgrade yesterday regarding its current year's revenue and adjusted EBIT. GRK now estimates that its revenue in 2025 will be 730-800 MEUR (was 650-730 MEUR) and its adjusted EBIT will be 45-55 MEUR (was 36-45 MEUR).
According to the company, the positive development of its revenue and EBIT has continued in Q2. GRK's projects have progressed faster than anticipated in H1, and year-end project forecasts have been refined. In addition to the strong realized earnings performance, the company has succeeded in securing new orders.
The guidance upgrade was expected, and our forecasts are within the new ranges
The positive earnings warning was, in our view, largely expected, considering GRK's very strong Q1 figures, the order book being at a good level both quantitatively and probably qualitatively at the end of Q1, and its normal order book turnover rate. In our initiation of coverage report (available here), published at the end of May, we set our current year forecast for the company above the original guidance range. In our forecasts, we expect GRK's revenue to grow this year by 7% to 778 MEUR and adjusted EBIT by 11% to 50.5 MEUR. Consequently, our forecasts are also within the new guidance ranges, and the positive earnings warning does not create immediate revision pressure for our short-term forecasts for GRK. Following the early earnings warning and positive comments regarding new sales, the risk level associated with current year forecasts and the share decreased slightly. A portion of the promising new sales from Q2 may also be allocated to future years, but we have already factored this into our forecasts.
GRK Infra operates in the infrastructure sector. The company's core competence includes the implementation of various infrastructure projects, project management of large and small projects and extensive railway expertise. Customers include the state, municipalities and cities as well as the private sector. In addition to the parent company GRK Infra Oyj, the GRK Group includes companies in each country of operation: GRK Suomi Oy in Finland, GRK Eesti AS in Estonia and GRK Sverige AB in Sweden.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures28.05.2025
| 2024 | 25e | 26e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 728.4 | 778.3 | 735.5 |
| growth-% | 33.4 % | 6.8 % | -5.5 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 45.6 | 50.5 | 44.1 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 6.3 % | 6.5 % | 6.0 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Dividend | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| Dividend % | 2.0 % | 2.9 % | 3.2 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 10.9 | 17.7 | 20.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 | 8.9 | 9.7 |
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