GRK Q4'25 flash comment: Earnings missed, guidance in line with expectations

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/12/2026 at 9:30 am EET.GRK published its 2025 financial statements release this morning. The fourth-quarter result was clearly below our forecasts in terms of profitability, while the 2026 guidance was largely in line with our expectations. The order book declined from the strong comparison period level as expected, although GRK still has a significant amount of won projects outside its order book. In addition, the company significantly raised its long-term revenue target.

Revenue slightly exceeded expectations, while profitability was significantly weaker

GRK's revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year in the final quarter to 209 MEUR. This was slightly above our forecast of 196 MEUR. Revenue development was stronger than our forecasts, especially in Sweden.  For the full year, revenue increased by 20% to 872 MEUR. The exceptional growth was driven by the faster-than-expected progress of large projects during the year, with the Stegra project being the most significant. In terms of profitability, Q4 was clearly softer than we expected, with adjusted EBIT falling to 9.7 MEUR (margin 4.7%) from 16.7 MEUR in the comparison period (margin 7.8%). The full-year adjusted EBIT was 58.2 MEUR (margin 6.7%), a clear increase from the comparison period's 45.6 MEUR (margin 6.3%). According to the company, profitability was weighed down towards the end of the year by the seasonality typical of infrastructure construction. On the lower lines, financial expenses were higher than our expectations, while the tax rate was slightly lower than our forecasts. Thus, GRK's Q4 EPS of EUR 0.12 landed below our forecast by an even greater margin than EBIT.

Working capital continued to develop very favorably in Q4, resulting in cash flow that clearly exceeded accumulated earnings. Due to the nature of GRK's project business, significant seasonal cash flow fluctuations are typical, and the development of earnings and cash flow can be significantly divergent on a quarterly basis.

The Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting that a dividend of EUR 0.43 per share and an additional dividend of EUR 0.10 per share be distributed. Overall, the dividend is below our estimate of EUR 0.66.

2026 guidance in line with estimates

GRK estimates that its 2026 revenue will be 720-870 MEUR and its adjusted EBIT will be 45-60 MEUR. The guidance is well in line with our current estimates (revenue 800.0 MEUR and adjusted EBIT 51.9 MEUR).

The company warned that the first quarter of 2026 would be weaker than the strong comparison period. In addition to normal seasonality, this is influenced by the significant Stegra project's work being weighted towards later in 2026. The Stegra project is scheduled to conclude during 2026, necessitating the securing of new orders in Sweden.

GRK's order book stood at 723 MEUR at the end of the year, falling short of the 846 MEUR from the comparison period, as expected. Although the reported order book decreased, the company has roughly 400 MEUR worth of won projects outside its order book that are currently in the development phase. These include, among others, the Rail Baltica project in Estonia and the Turku tramway. These projects provide a good foundation for growth in the coming years, even though the company's extensive Stegra project will conclude this year.

The revenue target level clearly increased

GRK raised its long-term revenue target to over 950 MEUR by 2028 (previously >750 MEUR) in connection with its financial statements. Achieving the target requires not only organic growth but also carefully considered acquisitions, which the company's strong cash position enables. Regarding organic growth, the company aims to expand its business into new geographical areas, particularly in Sweden, and to broaden its service offering in selected infrastructure construction segments within its current operating countries. The company's other financial targets for 2026–2028 remained unchanged.