GRK Q2'25 preview: Following the raised guidance, good numbers are in store

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/29/2025 at 7:49 am EEST.

Growth rates are likely to slow down as comparison figures rise

Only limited comparable figures are available from GRK's last year's quarterly results, which makes it difficult to forecast the seasonally highly fluctuating business on a quarterly basis. We forecast the company's revenue to have grown by 1% in Q2 to 184 MEUR. We estimate growth to have slowed significantly in Q2, as the comparison period is rather strong and, on the other hand, the high revenue in Q1, enabled by the warm winter, has partly been absent from Q2. Regionally, we forecast Estonia's revenue to have continued its strong growth, but in Finland and Sweden, growth may have already been tighter due to comparables. For example, Stegra's steel and hydrogen plant project, which has recently driven revenue growth in Sweden, was likely already in full swing during the comparison period, which limits growth potential, even though the project has progressed rapidly in Q2.

We expect a clear earnings improvement for Q2

We estimate GRK's adjusted EBIT to have been 9.9 MEUR in Q2, which, considering the seasonal nature of Q2, corresponds to a reasonable and slightly stronger than Q1 adjusted EBIT margin of 5.4% for the company. We estimate the reported EBIT to have roughly doubled from the comparison period. Earnings are supported by a fairly high revenue level in all countries (i.e.  volume) as well as, according to our estimate, a good margin structure (including the Stegra project's sustained high share of revenue). In the bottom lines of the income statement, we do not expect GRK to have recorded one-off items for Q2, whereas we have accounted for approximately 3 MEUR in IPO costs in financial expenses. Our adjusted EPS estimate is EUR 0.19. From a cash flow perspective, the progress of the Stegra project, which is likely heavily weighted towards upfront payments, may strain GRK's recently strong cash flow.

Sales also appear to have been quite strong in Q2

In its positive profit warning, GRK commented favorably on the development of the company's orders. In our view, the market in GRK's operating areas is moderate as public sector infrastructure investments remain relatively stable, and the company's competitiveness is good. No comparison figures are available for orders either. However, we estimate that orders have initially declined from the comparable period, as GRK presumably received significant follow-up orders from Stegra during the comparison period, whereas now these should likely be tapering off (the plant is scheduled to commence operations next year). Therefore, we would not be surprised if the company's order-to-billing ratio had fallen somewhat below the 1x level in Q2. We nevertheless forecast GRK's order book to have remained at a solid level above 800 MEUR at the end of Q2.

We expect the company to achieve its guidance without problems

In its positive profit warning in June, GRK estimated that its revenue in 2025 will be 730-800 MEUR (previously 650-730 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT will be 45-55 MEUR (previously 36-45 MEUR) in 2025. We forecast 773 MEUR in revenue and 50.5 MEUR in adjusted EBIT for the company prior to its Q2 results. We expect the company to reiterate its relatively recent guidance in its Q2 report, as at this point in the year the company should already have reasonable visibility into the full year's volume. In our view, the strong and likely high-quality order book, along with a healthy-looking demand environment, support achieving the guidance.