GreenMobility: Expands fleet aggressively after competitor closes down

Today it was announced that ShareNow will close its Danish operations, fully implemented by February next year. 

Following that announcement, GreenMobility released a statement that it will expand its fleet in Copenhagen to more than 1,000 cars. The expansion of the fleet will happen over the coming months, and it is the company's expectation to have around 1,000 electric shared cars in the capital during Q1-2024.

Read the full announcement here: https://view.news.eu.nasdaq.com/view?id=bc3c37b9b676c473c833579ff755a175e&lang=en&src=listed

It is estimated that ShareNow has around 650 cars in Copenhagen and operates around one million trips. ShareNow’s result has not been specified in the yearly reports from Arriva Denmark A/S. 

If we use the metrics from GreenMobility, with an average trip of DKK 99 (Q3 2023 numbers on every market, could be substantially higher in Copenhagen), or the average revenue per car per month, this equates to potential revenue of DKK 60-100m per year. 

It is not likely that someone will take over the total business of ShareNow, an event that could make it riskier for GreenMobility to expand its fleet. One should wonder if a sales process of ShareNow is initiated by first announcing a shutdown.

Currently, GreenMobility has revenues of around DKK 8.5-9t per car per month in Copenhagen and operates around 600 cars in the city. So around 400 new cars could mean an additional full-year revenue between DKK 40m and 43m.

Some cannibalization effects should be expected. But could be low, since the new cars will replace competitors' cars taken fully out of the market. But also, because we haven't seen a large effect when GreenMobility moved cars to Copenhagen in its latest strategy change.

With a total 2023 expected revenue (group) of DKK 120-130m in GreenMobilty, and Copenhagen being profitable, this could have a material impact on the results going forward, and the timeline for being profitable on a group level (current guided for 2024).

On top of the potential revenue, it will clearly lower the competitive pricing and investment needs to sustain revenue.

HC Andersen Capital receives payment for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement from GreenMobility. CEO of HC Andersen Capital, Tue Østergaard, owns shares and is the Chairman of the Board of GreenMobility. /Michael Friis 13:17, 22 November 2023.