Flügger publishes its Q1 2026/27 quarterly announcement on Wednesday, 30 September 2026. As a trading statement, the release discloses revenue by segment and geography only. We expect it to confirm that underlying customer growth is starting to outweigh the private-label phase-out, with Poland maintaining double-digit growth. Our attention is on whether the 12% growth in Nordic professional painter customers in 2025/26 converts into reported revenue, on the Danish trajectory after the 5% inflection in Q4, and on the pace of store openings in Poland. We reiterate our "Accumulate" recommendation and DKK 410 price target.

Sweden and Norway to carry the Nordics while Denmark laps a private-label tail

We estimate Flügger's Q1 2026/27 revenue at approximately MDKK 674, representing low-single digit growth at 3.2% from the comparable period (Q1 2025/26: MDKK 653). Growth should be driven primarily by the International segment, where Poland delivers high-single digit growth on the full-year effect of the four stores opened in 2025/26 and an expanded sales force. In the Nordics, we expect Sweden and Norway to maintain their recovery trajectories as professional painter activity improves from low levels, while Denmark is likely to remain roughly flat, as management has flagged that the 2026/27 comparison base still carries a private-label effect from the year just ended. We expect modest growth in Partnerships, following last year's weak demand for exterior products among Polish DIY chains.

Mix to lift peak-season profitability, while ERP costs persist

Q1 is Flügger's seasonally strongest quarter and generates the bulk of annual earnings. We estimate group EBIT of MDKK 121, up from MDKK 111 in Q1 2025/26, a margin of 17.9% (Q1 2025/26: 17.0%). The improvement is supported by the mix shift towards own-brand products and professional customers, which lifted the full-year 2025/26 gross margin by 1.9pp to 55.5%, alongside production and raw material optimization. On costs, ERP-related consultancy ran ahead of our modelling in H2 2025/26 and management expects it to continue for at least a couple of years before the ERP and logistics projects turn into net savings.

Unchanged guidance expected ahead of the seasonally weaker quarters

Guidance for 2026/27 is revenue of MDKK 2,400-2,500 (3.8% to 8.1%) and EBIT of MDKK 105-125, a midpoint implying around 6% earnings growth. Management attributes the narrower-than-usual revenue range to reduced DIY exposure taking volatility out of the business, and states the uplift is not price-led, with price increases offsetting cost inflation. Our full-year estimates are revenue of MDKK 2,414, toward the lower end as we are more cautious on the Nordic recovery, and EBIT of MDKK 124, at the upper end. The guided EBIT margin midpoint implies little change year-over-year despite the gross margin gains, which management attributes to a buffer for geopolitical and raw material volatility, and with most raw materials and production sourced in Europe, we view that buffer as conservative. The sanctions compliance case remains the key risk.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Flügger for a DigitalIR and research agreement. Rasmus Køjborg and Victor Skriver 08:15 18/09-2026.