Enersense Q3'25 preview: Eyes on the progress of the efficiency program

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/30/2025 at 7:10 am EET.

Source: Inderes

Enersense will publish its Q3 report on Friday at around 8:30 am EET. We expect the company's operating result to have decreased from the strong comparison period but to have improved significantly from the previous quarter. In addition to the figures, we will be monitoring more detailed market commentary, as well as commentary on the progress of strategy implementation and the Value Uplift efficiency program. 

We expect revenue from core businesses to decline

We forecast that Enersense's reported revenue will have declined by as much as 28% in Q3 attributable to the high revenue level of previous non-core businesses (particularly the Marine and Offshore Unit) in the comparison period. In contrast, we expect revenue from core businesses to settle at 80.2 MEUR (Q3’24: 90.9 MEUR), where we expect the trend seen in the early part of the year to continue (cf. H1'25: -14% y/y). However, we expect growth compared to the previous quarter, supported by a stronger order book and seasonal factors (cf. Q2'25: 74.8 MEUR). At the same time, however, it should be noted that there is uncertainty surrounding the more detailed timing of the order book, and we have currently assumed that Q4 will be the busiest quarter of the year. By segment, we expect the decline in revenue to be widespread.

We also estimate the operational result to fall short of the strong comparison period

Accordingly, our adjusted EBITDA estimate for the core businesses is 5.9 MEUR. In light of the revenue development and the high margin relative to the recent history of the comparison period, we estimate that development will be below the strong comparison period (last year's reported Q3'24 comparison figure was 9.0 MEUR, but the company has since changed its calculation method). In contrast, we expect a clear improvement in earnings compared to Q2 (Q2’25 adjusted EBITDA for core businesses: -0.2 MEUR). Compared to the previous quarter, we expect improvement, particularly from Energy Transition, whose Q2 result was pushed into the red by loss-making maintenance centers. The company did announce its intention to sell or close poorly performing units, which we expect will lead to a fairly rapid improvement in earnings. Our estimate for the group's reported EBITDA is 5.3 MEUR, but the reported numbers are highly uncertain due to positive (e.g., sale of the Marine and Offshore Unit) and negative one-time items and other adjustments (e.g., Value Uplift, ERP project, results of associated companies).

On the other hand, we expect depreciation and finance costs to have decreased slightly since the beginning of the year following the sale of the Marine and Offshore Unit. However, there is still uncertainty surrounding this, as well as the final impact of the various restructuring measures implemented during the current year. We are therefore also looking for indications in the report regarding future developments in this area.

We expect the company to reiterate its guidance, comments on progress of strategy of interest

The company has provided guidance indicating that the adjusted EBITDA of its core businesses for the current year will be 16–20 MEUR (2024: 20.7 MEUR). We expect the company to reiterate its guidance in connection with the report, or, at most, narrow the guidance range. Prior to the report, we forecast the operating result of the core businesses to be 17.9 MEUR for the current year.

In addition to the figures, we will pay close attention to the company's comments on the implementation of its new strategy and the progress of the Value Uplift program. Regarding Value Uplift, the company raised the program's overall target in the summer from 5 MEUR to 6.5 MEUR in annual performance improvement (EBIT run-rate) by mid-2026. In addition, it expects to reach the previous level of 5 MEUR by the end of the current year (2.5 MEUR at the end of H1’25). We will continue to monitor the progress of the program and any updates to its targets. As usual, we are also monitoring more detailed market commentary with great interest.

Our recently published extensive report on the company can be read here. In it, we have taken a closer look at the company's strategy and our projections for the coming years, among other things.