Componenta: Specified guidance confirms continued good development near year-end

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/21/2025 at 7:10 am EET.

The updated guidance was better than our forecast in terms of revenue, but in line with expectations in terms of EBITDA. Therefore, we do not see the release having a significant impact on our current earnings forecasts. Better-than-expected revenue growth also slightly reduces uncertainty regarding the double-digit growth figures estimated for 2026. The share is fully priced based on this year's earnings, but the still favorable growth prospects will rapidly lower the multiples in the coming years. We are not making any changes to our Accumulate recommendation or our target price of EUR 4.70 for Componenta for the time being.

EBITDA in line with expectations, revenue slightly above our forecast

Componenta announced yesterday that it would revise its guidance for the current year. The company now provided numerical ranges for both revenue (115-118 MEUR) and EBITDA (9.0-9.8 MEUR), whereas previously it only estimated both to improve from the previous year (2024 revenue: 97.1 MEUR, EBITDA: 4.9 MEUR). From an EBITDA perspective, the new guidance is in line with our forecasts (2025e EBITDA: 9.4 MEUR), but the guided revenue exceeds our forecast by 2-4%. We will update our current year revenue forecast to the company's guidance range in connection with our Q4 preview at the latest.

The company refined its guidance because the outlook for customer delivery timings and delivery capability, as well as likely the cost structure, is now quite clear for the rest of the year. The midpoint of the guidance would correspond to a 20% revenue growth for Q4, which is in line with the strong performance in Q1-Q3.

No major changes to the positive outlook for 2026

We do not believe the updated 2025 guidance significantly changes the business outlook for the coming year. However, we believe that the better-than-expected revenue development slightly reduces the uncertainty regarding our 2026 growth forecast. Among Componenta's customer sectors, demand in the defense industry is strong according to our assessment, and the outlook in the energy sector is also positive, although both segments have likely performed well already this year, and growth from an already higher level is naturally more challenging. Our growth forecast has partly relied on the agricultural machinery market recovering from its low level. We see no reason to change these assumptions after the guidance upgrade.  

We forecast revenue to grow to 130 MEUR in 2026 (12% growth relative to the midpoint of the 2025 guidance). We estimate Componenta's EBITDA to rise to 11.2 MEUR next year, as higher volumes and the scalability of fixed costs will also slightly increase relative profitability.

The valuation is still favorable if the earnings turnaround is sustainable

Componenta's share is valued at an adjusted EV/EBIT multiple of 12x based on low-risk 2025 forecasts. Considering the company's historical capital return profile, the current year's valuation is not particularly attractive. However, considering the expected recovery in key customer industries in due course, and on the other hand, the visibility into at least a good demand level in the defense and energy industries, valuation multiples decrease significantly with forecasts for the coming years (adj. EV/EBIT 2026-2027e: 8x and 6x). This year, the company has raised profitability to a new level, partly due to the growth in sales in the high-margin defense industry and partly due to improved operational efficiency. If the new profitability level proves sustainable and the return on capital profile improves in line with our forecasts (2023-24: 7-10%, 2025-26e: 10-15%), there would be clear upside in the company's earnings-based valuation multiples for the coming years from the current level. In our view, the expected decrease in the company's financing costs is also a positive driver from the perspective of net income and cash flows.