Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/5/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

CapMan will publish its Q2 report on Thursday, August 6. The company's earnings release can be followed here at 9:30 am EEST. We expect strong earnings improvement from the company, driven by previous new sales and good investment income. The absolute highlight of the review period, however, is the first closings of the Infra III and NRE IV funds, which were already announced and will significantly reduce the company's growth-related risk level.

New sales flourished during the review period

We expect CapMan's Q2 revenue to grow clearly, reaching 18.0 MEUR (Q2'25 14.1 MEUR). Most of the growth will come from management fees, where last year's strong sales and the CAERUS acquisition will support the figures. Investors should note that the significant first closings of the Infra III and NRE IV funds during the review period are not yet reflected in the top line at all. We still expect carried interest income to be modest, at around 1 MEUR, and larger carried interest income can be expected in Q4 at the earliest, if Infra 1 reaches carry within the current year.

We consider the first closings of the Infra III and NRE IV funds to be the most important events of the review period, as they will increase the company's assets under management (AUM) to 7.7 BEUR, according to our calculations. The rapid closing of the infrastructure fund immediately after fundraising began, in particular, has been an outstanding success in our view, and we estimate that the closing was significant in scale. The first closing of the NRE IV real estate fund is also a strategically crucial step in the still challenging real estate market, although the closing size likely remained modest. These successes significantly reduce the risk profile associated with the company’s extensive fundraising cycle and provide strong support for our growth expectations for 2026–2027.

Fee profit improves, but cost control is under scrutiny

We expect adjusted EBIT to increase significantly to 9.3 MEUR (Q2’ 25: 3.3 MEUR). Most of the earnings improvement will come from investment income, where we expect a solid quarter (+5.4 MEUR). Fee profit, which is critical for the share, will also grow significantly, driven by previous new sales (Q2'26: 2.9 MEUR). Following significant new sales successes, growth risks have decreased, and strong earnings improvements in the coming years will depend even more on maintaining cost control. Once again, the development of expenses is under close scrutiny.

No surprises expected in the outlook

We expect CapMan to reiterate its guidance for the current year, according to which assets under management and the profitability of fee income will grow during 2026. In addition to the figures, we pay particular attention in the report to management's comments on the vitality of the fundraising market and the timelines for upcoming closings.