Canatu H1'25 preview: We expect weak figures without new reactor deliveries

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/22/2025 at 7:45 am EEST.

Canatu will report its H1 report on Friday, August 29, at 9:00 am (EEST). We expect the company's revenue to have decreased from the comparison period, when the company's first carbon nanotube reactors were being delivered. The company has not seen new reactor orders in the early part of the year, but new orders may still be announced later in the year. Since its IPO, Canatu has significantly increased its growth investments to realize its attractive long-term growth potential. This, along with the weakening revenue in our forecast, naturally means a deepening of operating losses for H1. Canatu may provide guidance for this year in the report, and the company's outlook comments are also of particular interest.

We forecast revenue to have declined significantly year-on-year due to the absence of new reactor deliveries

Our H1 revenue forecast for Canatu is 7.8 MEUR, which would mean a 30% decrease from the comparison period. In 2024, Canatu recognized revenue from the first two reactor deliveries to semiconductor sector customers. The company has not seen new reactor orders in the early part of the year, and expectations for potential new deals are weighted towards the end of the year. Thus, we expect Semiconductor Industry revenue to have decreased by 32% to 6.7 MEUR. Against this backdrop, we assume that revenue from inspection supplies continued to grow, but there is no precise visibility into the various revenue streams. We estimate Automotive revenue to have been 1.1 MEUR (H1’24: 1.2 MEUR). Revenue has at least to some extent been supported by the joint development agreement with DENSO announced in April, but otherwise there is little visibility into the development. In connection with its financial statements, Canatu commented that the start of mass production of ADAS camera heaters had been delayed due to certain customer processes. Canatu estimated at the time that mass production ramp-up would begin in 2025.

We expect the result to have been significantly loss-making

With the capital raised through last fall's SPAC listing, Canatu has accelerated its investments in many areas. As a result of increased investments and simultaneously weakening revenue in our forecast, we expect the company's EBITDA to have fallen to a loss of -4.1 MEUR. Canatu’s growth and earnings expectations are particularly weighted towards 2027, when the company aims to achieve over 100 MEUR in revenue and an adjusted operating profit margin of over 30%. We believe the key to growth will be the ramp-up of the reactor business, which will lead to growth in recurring revenues from royalties and non-discretionary consumables in the years ahead.

Outlook comments are sought for indications of future growth

Canatu has not yet provided an outlook for 2025, but according to the company, 2025 revenue will be weighted towards H2 due to potential new reactor orders. The semiconductor industry will account for the majority of this year's revenue, but the scale and timing of revenue appear to be largely dependent on customer decisions. For the first two reactors, customers still need to complete the approval tests before volume production of pellicle membranes can start. Regarding these, Canatu announced in July that the commissioning tests for the first reactor had been passed.  After the approval tests, customers still go through a four-stage process to ensure that their production line is ready for mass production. Then, the process proceeds gradually from pilot/risk production to mass production. All of this takes time, in light of which the first reactors are unlikely to be in full mass production with customers this year. Canatu also expects that any further reactor orders from existing customers will likely depend on the successful completion of the final approval tests of the first two reactors and related equipment. Our forecast expects nearly stable revenue for this year (2025e: 22.8 MEUR, +4%) and EBITDA to remain at -5.1 MEUR. Our forecast requires clear revenue growth from the semiconductor sector in H2, which would practically mean new reactor orders. The consensus estimate for this year is 25.2 MEUR in revenue and -7.7 MEUR in EBITDA.