Betolar H2'25 preview: Large order provides some breathing room, but the need for financing is approaching

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 01/27/2026 at 07:47 am EET

Betolar publishes its financial statements on Thursday, February 5th. We expect H2 revenue to have grown slightly from the comparison period, and tight cost control to have reduced losses and improved cash flow. Despite this, we believe Betolar will need additional financing during 2026. Following the large order in October, we expect an upward level correction in new orders in H2'25. In the release, our attention is drawn to how the delivery of the major order is progressing, potential new partnerships, and updates on the new technology that enables metal separation and the production of green concrete.

Our revenue growth estimate relies on successful deliveries that have already been sold

Betolar accumulated slightly more new orders in the first three quarters of 2025 (Q1–Q3) than in the comparison period (Q1–Q3'25 0.8 MEUR vs Q1–Q3'24 0.7 MEUR), supported by which we expect Betolar to have achieved revenue growth in H2'25.

We estimate Betolar's H2'25 revenue to be 0.6 MEUR, which would represent slight growth from 0.5 MEUR last year. Q3 revenue was 0.2 MEUR, so according to our estimate, Q4 revenue will be around 0.4 MEUR. We expect revenue to consist mainly of customer pilot projects in the mining and metal industries, research projects, and blast furnace slag brokerage in India. The company's largest order in its history (1.4 MEUR), announced in October 2025, is estimated to be recognized as revenue mainly in 2026, so this order does not significantly support Q4 revenue in our estimate. We expect new orders in H2'25 to have reached a record level of over 2 MEUR, supported by the large order announced in connection with the Q3 results.

We believe cost control keeps losses in check despite the dwindling cash

We expect Betolar’s EBITDA to have been around -1.7 MEUR in H2'25. Our estimate includes approximately 0.3 MEUR in public subsidies, which will strengthen reported EBITDA in Q4. The company did not raise subsidies in Q3, so the focus of subsidies in our estimate is on Q4. In our view, the company has continued strict cost control and optimization of personnel numbers, which has helped curb losses despite the low level of revenue. On the bottom line, the result has been weighed down by our estimated depreciation of just under 1 MEUR and net financial costs, which we expect to have turned negative due to the depleted cash situation. After these, we expect H2'25 EPS to land at EUR -0.12.

Betolar's cash assets were 7.4 MEUR at the end of September 2025, and we estimate the cash to have ended up at around 6.5 MEUR at the end of the 2025 financial year. Following Q4 subsidies, which were in line with our expectations, the balance sheet situation is further improved by unwithdrawn subsidies of just under 2 MEUR. However, we expect the previous net cash position to have ended up slightly in net debt at the end of the financial year, indicating a tightening balance sheet situation and a rather acute need for financing. We consider successful commercial deliveries (especially the large Q4 order) important for both cash flow and the availability of financing.

We consider 2026 critical for scaling growth and financing

We expect a significant increase in revenue in 2026 (5.2 MEUR), primarily based on our estimated new orders in H2'25 (over 2 MEUR). However, achieving this target requires continuous growth in new orders during H1'26, particularly in mining industry customers, in our view. In our estimates, the new technology, which enables metal separation and the production of green concrete, will not move more strongly into the commercial phase until 2027. Like last year, we expect the company to guide for growing revenue, which we believe is quite easily achievable with the orders received.

We believe the most important things for investors to follow in connection with the release are comments on the strengthening of the financial position and how negotiations for the new metal separation method are progressing. We believe it is important for the company to demonstrate in H1'26 that the large order received in October was not an isolated case, but that the commercial breakthrough is truly progressing. We also consider potential new partnerships with players in the metal industry as important indicators of the technology's viability and demand.