Anora Q2'25 preview: The timing of Easter supports a small improvement

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/12/2025 at 07:36 am EEST

The company will report its Q2 results on Friday, August 15, at 8:30 am EEST. The timing of Easter in April supports the Q2 figures, and we expect revenue in line with the comparison period, as well as slightly better adjusted EBITDA. We believe that the company will reiterate its full-year guidance of EBITDA of 70-75 MEUR, although our forecast is at the bottom of the guidance.  

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)

Timing of Easter supports revenue, Industrial depresses

We expect Anora’s revenue to remain at the comparison period level in Q2. We expect revenue from beverage sales (Wine and Spirits segments) to grow slightly (1%), supported by Easter falling in Q2. Of the monopoly markets, the volumes of Sweden and Norway grew slightly in the quarter. In Finland, Alko's sales continued to decline following the legislative change that occurred in June last year. However, some of the decrease is compensated for by increased sales of wines to grocery stores. On the other hand, the comparison period included the stocking of retail distribution channels, which supported the Wine segment. In Q1, Anora was able to grow faster than the market, e.g., thanks to Sweden’s improved market share and international growth. We believe that these factors will also support growth in Q2. Revenue growth is hampered by a 10% decline in the Industrial segment we expect. 

Slight improvement in earnings expectations

In terms of earnings, we forecast all segments to slightly improve their earnings, and thus the group's adjusted EBITDA to rise to 17 MEUR from 15.2 MEUR in the comparison period. We expect the gross margin to be close to the comparison period's level, with the improvement supported by small revenue growth in the beverage segments and cost control. 

Guidance to remain unchanged

We believe Anora will reiterate its full-year guidance expecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 70-75 MEUR. Our forecast is 70 MEUR and the comparison period outcome was 69 MEUR. The company's Q1 result was slightly weaker than the comparison period, and with the Q2 result we forecast, the company would show a small improvement in H1 as a whole from the comparison period. However, most of the company’s earnings are made later in the year, especially in Q4. The guidance assumes that market volumes will remain roughly at last year's level and Anora's volumes will improve.