Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/27/2026 at 09:10 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 5 estimates)

Alma Media publishes its Q1'26 report on Wednesday at around 8:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue and EBIT to have grown year-on-year, even though the market situation has remained relatively gloomy. Our 2026 estimates anticipate moderate revenue growth and significant earnings growth (+8%), so we expect the company to reiterate its guidance.

We expect growth in all segments

There have been no major changes in the development of Alma Media's main markets, as investment levels in consumer durables and the media advertising market have continued to be rather subdued. Nevertheless, we estimate Alma Media's Q1 revenue to have grown by just under 5% to 83 MEUR. In our estimates, the Group's revenue growth is driven particularly by the Marketplaces segment (+10%), which is boosted especially by the Edilex and Effortia acquisitions. We also estimate that the Career segment continued on a slight growth trend (+2%), in line with the invoicing trend seen at the end of last year. We estimate News Media's revenue to have grown slightly (+~1%), as the growth in digital income more than compensated for the impact of print contraction in our estimates.

We expect a slight improvement in earnings

We expect Alma Media's Q1 adjusted EBIT to have risen to 17.5 MEUR. Our estimate expects the adjusted EBIT margin to have decreased slightly from the rather good level of the comparison period, settling at 21.1% (Q1'25: 21.7%). At the segment level, we expect relatively stable profitability development from both Career and News Media, in line with their strict cost control. Compared to the comparison period, profitability is decreased by the slight decline we expect in Marketplaces' profitability, reflecting, e.g., a moderate change in the revenue structure, and we also estimate that group-level costs have increased from the comparison period. Moderate operational earnings growth also raises our EPS estimate above the comparison period to EUR 0.15 per share.

Our estimates include earnings growth in line with the guidance

Alma Media's guidance for 2026 is that revenue remains at the 2025 level and the adjusted EBIT grows. Ahead of the Q1 report, our forecast for the current year's revenue is 340 MEUR and 88.2 MEUR for adjusted EBIT. The corresponding consensus median estimates are 338 MEUR in revenue and 89.5 MEUR in adjusted EBIT. Thus, we expect revenue growth of 3-4% and adjusted EBIT growth of around 8-9%. Thus, we consider that expectations to be in line with the verbal guidance, and the company's own actions are expected to support earnings growth, even though significant market tailwinds are not in sight. We are looking for support for these expectations from the Q1 figures. Our attention is also focused on market commentary and the development of invoicing, which sheds light on the future development of recruitment demand.