Copyright © Inderes 2011 - present. All rights reserved.
  • Latest
  • Markets
    • Stock Comparison
    • Financial Calendar
    • Dividends Calendar
    • Research
    • Articles
  • inderesTV
  • Forum
  • About Us
    • Our Coverage
    • Team
Third party research

Maha Energy: Softer quarter expected - ABG

Maha Capital

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

Download report (PDF)
Q2 estimates down on lower production from the Tie field

Drilling campaign to commence in Oman from Q4

Share price discounts USD 58/bbl

Lower production from Tie field drives revision of estimates
After a record strong Q1’22 for Maha Energy, we see a softer Q2 driven by lower production from the Tie field. Based on production data from ANP, we lower our production estimate for Q2 to ~3.2k boe/d from 4.5k boe/d previously. Given a lower exit rate production from Q2, we also lower our Q3e to 3.7k boe/d, down from 4.9k boe/d. The disappointing production volumes lower our Q2e earnings. We now see EBITDA of USD 16.9m, below FactSet consensus at USD 23.7m, and free cash flow of USD 1m in the quarter, below consensus at USD 16m.

Mafraq back in focus for H2
Maha recently announced the contracting of a new drilling rig for the six well campaign at the Mafraq field. The rig is expected to mobilize in October and will replace the rig from GBS, previously announced to be withdrawn. In addition, Maha today announced a farmout agreement on Block 70 with Mafraq Energy, bringing its working interest down to 65% and reducing the future capex net to Maha on the field. The deal requires Mafraq energy to reimburse Maha for its prorated share of all past costs and pay its share of future expenditure. It is positive to see that Maha was able to secure a new drilling rig for the campaign and these events put the drilling at Mafraq back as a key event for H2’22. Currently, we have not included any production from Mafraq in our estimates and valued the block at book value. Thus, this represents upside potential to our current fair value range.

Current share price discounts USD 58/bbl
In line with other E&Ps and the energy sector in general, Maha’s share price has come down in recent months. At the current levels, we estimate that Maha discounts brent at USD 58/bbl, down from USD 68/bbl last quarter. The current NAV/sh on our oil price estimates is SEK 24.7 and the P/NAV is 0.57x.
Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
Find us on social media
  • Inderes Forum
  • Youtube
  • Facebook
  • X (Twitter)
Get in touch
  • info@hcandersencapital.dk
  • Bredgade 23B, 2. sal
    1260 København K
Inderes
  • About us
  • Our team
  • Careers
  • Inderes as an investment
  • Services for listed companies
Our platform
  • FAQ
  • Terms of service
  • Privacy policy
  • Disclaimer
Inderes’ Disclaimer can be found here. Detailed information about each share actively monitored by Inderes is available on the company-specific pages on Inderes’ website. © Inderes Oyj. All rights reserved.
  • Latest
  • Markets
    • Stock Comparison
    • Financial Calendar
    • Dividends Calendar
    • Research
    • Articles
  • inderesTV
  • Forum
  • About Us
    • Our Coverage
    • Team