INVISIO: Order uptick needed in H2e - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
Q2 yet another miss
As feared, Invisio faced tough comps in Q2 and missed expectations across most key metrics. Compared to Modular Finance consensus, sales were +1% while the lower gross margin (-390bps) drove a -5% deviation on gross profit. With opex coming in 7% above expectations, adj. EBIT dropped 48% y-o-y for a -29% miss vs. consensus. On orders, the SEK 401m was a -5% deviation vs. consensus. Looking ahead, we make a positive revision to our Q3 sales estimate on orders actually coming in 7% above our estimate in Q2, while we remain somewhat cautious on Q4e organic growth due to the spectacular Q4'24 (71% organic growth and a positive profit warning).
Negative short-term revisions
As a result of the weaker-than-expected Q2, we reduce 2025e EBIT by 5% despite raising sales by 3%. Beyond this year, we make small positive revisions on sales and EBIT (1-5%) in 2026e-27e amid stronger FX vs. our previous update and our sense that the current opex investments (+25% y-o-y in H1'25) should yield somewhat stronger growth. The margin target was updated to >20% vs >15%, meaning we were already within the new range (we had ~22% in 2026e-27e), while consensus expectations of 25-27% look a bit exaggerated, in our view. We think that Invisio will run the business for stronger growth in that case.
Announced orders needed in H2e
On our updated 2025e EBIT estimate (SEK 355m), we remain below pre-Q2 consensus (-15%). With negative revisions post-Q1 and Q2, the trend would need to revert in H2 to meet expectations. Order intake has missed consensus in both Q1 and Q2, while the company guides for increased military budgets to demonstrate results in an active H2. This factor is likely necessary if consensus is to hold up, in our view. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 48x 2025e EV/EBIT and 38x 2026e.
As feared, Invisio faced tough comps in Q2 and missed expectations across most key metrics. Compared to Modular Finance consensus, sales were +1% while the lower gross margin (-390bps) drove a -5% deviation on gross profit. With opex coming in 7% above expectations, adj. EBIT dropped 48% y-o-y for a -29% miss vs. consensus. On orders, the SEK 401m was a -5% deviation vs. consensus. Looking ahead, we make a positive revision to our Q3 sales estimate on orders actually coming in 7% above our estimate in Q2, while we remain somewhat cautious on Q4e organic growth due to the spectacular Q4'24 (71% organic growth and a positive profit warning).
Negative short-term revisions
As a result of the weaker-than-expected Q2, we reduce 2025e EBIT by 5% despite raising sales by 3%. Beyond this year, we make small positive revisions on sales and EBIT (1-5%) in 2026e-27e amid stronger FX vs. our previous update and our sense that the current opex investments (+25% y-o-y in H1'25) should yield somewhat stronger growth. The margin target was updated to >20% vs >15%, meaning we were already within the new range (we had ~22% in 2026e-27e), while consensus expectations of 25-27% look a bit exaggerated, in our view. We think that Invisio will run the business for stronger growth in that case.
Announced orders needed in H2e
On our updated 2025e EBIT estimate (SEK 355m), we remain below pre-Q2 consensus (-15%). With negative revisions post-Q1 and Q2, the trend would need to revert in H2 to meet expectations. Order intake has missed consensus in both Q1 and Q2, while the company guides for increased military budgets to demonstrate results in an active H2. This factor is likely necessary if consensus is to hold up, in our view. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 48x 2025e EV/EBIT and 38x 2026e.