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Third party research

Humble Group: Eyes on Q2 for higher organic growth q-o-q - ABG

Humble Group

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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'25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 3%
Already strong gross margin in Q1 can turn even stronger in H2
~9x '25e EV/EBITA is ~40% below peers


Takeaways from the report

The Q1 report was characterised by slightly weaker organic growth than usual because the Easter holidays occurred mid-April (Q2) rather than Q1. We did not anticipate the Easter impact to be that significant, and we therefore put a somewhat higher weight on Q2 in terms of organic growth delivery. The gross margin was strong at roughly 32%, as some of the company's purchasing and shipping efficiencies have come into effect. However, the 9% y-o-y gross profit growth translated into 4% y-o-y adj. EBITA growth due to discretionary sales & marketing expenditure. In terms of cash flow, we did not see the latent working capital release that we had expected due to tax deferrals.
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