Ework Group: Margin resilience, but auto woes - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
The market remains challenging
As in recent quarters, Ework's Q2 was affected by a weak market, with ongoing macroeconomic turmoil weighing on sales volumes. Sales declined by 13% y-o-y, of which 5pp stemmed from the recent portfolio rebalancing (vs. -8pp y-o-y in Q1) and 2pp from fewer working days. Although this was in line with our forecast, EBIT was +32% vs. ABGSCe due to lower costs (adj. EBIT -14% y-o-y). We expect costs to remain low over the coming quarters and see room for more cost measures if sales volumes do not pick up; however, we continue to anticipate a gradual recovery in demand in 2026, although visibility remains limited. The main uncertainty lies in the automotive end market, which has only recently begun to deteriorate, with layoffs occurring at Volvo Cars, for example (link). Most other end markets have now been soft for an extended period. Nevertheless, one small positive is that Ework achieved a slight q-o-q increase in sales, while most other peers, including Knowit, B3, Avensia as well as AFRY and Sweco, have reported negative sequential growth.
We lower our sales assumptions in '26e-'27e
Lower-than-expected costs lead us to raise '25e EBIT by 3%. However, due to a more cautious view on the sales recovery, we reduce '26e-'27e EBIT by 6–4%.
12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj.
The share is trading at 12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT (vs. peers at 14x-10x), which is in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. While we acknowledge Ework's strong track record, we argue that its financial target of >30% EPS growth p.a. should be reviewed. Nonetheless, earnings are set for a robust recovery once demand returns; we currently model 20% adj. EBIT growth in 2026e, compared to -17% in '25e.
As in recent quarters, Ework's Q2 was affected by a weak market, with ongoing macroeconomic turmoil weighing on sales volumes. Sales declined by 13% y-o-y, of which 5pp stemmed from the recent portfolio rebalancing (vs. -8pp y-o-y in Q1) and 2pp from fewer working days. Although this was in line with our forecast, EBIT was +32% vs. ABGSCe due to lower costs (adj. EBIT -14% y-o-y). We expect costs to remain low over the coming quarters and see room for more cost measures if sales volumes do not pick up; however, we continue to anticipate a gradual recovery in demand in 2026, although visibility remains limited. The main uncertainty lies in the automotive end market, which has only recently begun to deteriorate, with layoffs occurring at Volvo Cars, for example (link). Most other end markets have now been soft for an extended period. Nevertheless, one small positive is that Ework achieved a slight q-o-q increase in sales, while most other peers, including Knowit, B3, Avensia as well as AFRY and Sweco, have reported negative sequential growth.
We lower our sales assumptions in '26e-'27e
Lower-than-expected costs lead us to raise '25e EBIT by 3%. However, due to a more cautious view on the sales recovery, we reduce '26e-'27e EBIT by 6–4%.
12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj.
The share is trading at 12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT (vs. peers at 14x-10x), which is in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. While we acknowledge Ework's strong track record, we argue that its financial target of >30% EPS growth p.a. should be reviewed. Nonetheless, earnings are set for a robust recovery once demand returns; we currently model 20% adj. EBIT growth in 2026e, compared to -17% in '25e.