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Third party research

Berner Industrier: A surprisingly strong finish to '24 - ABG

Berner Industrier

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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Orders recover sharply, +30% y-o-y, and sales beat our est. by 8%
Strong E&E margin brings group to 7.4% adj. EBITA, we had 3.8%
T&D restructuring continued (SEK -4.2m NRI), outlook improving

Q4 results
Order intake came in at SEK 272m (+29% vs. ABGSCe 212m), +29% y-o-y, marking a sharp recovery after a weak year, as the increased quotations seen in Q3 materialised into orders. Sales were SEK 247m (+7.7% vs. ABGSCe 230m), +5.3% y-o-y (+5.6% org.), and EBITA adj. was SEK 18m (+111% vs. ABGSCe 8.7m), for a margin of +7.4% (ABGSCe +3.8%). The beat was driven by the E&E segment which delivered impressive growth of 21% and a very strong margin of 14%. The T&D segment continued to struggle and once again saw some restructuring charges in the quarter (SEK -4.2m), but management highlights the necessity of this work to improve its longer-term prospects.

Estimates and outlook
While management wants to see more quarters of consistent growth in order to feel confident in the turn, and not all parts of the business are running at full speed yet, they do judge the aggregate momentum seen in the quarter as promising. On the Q4 numbers alone, '25e-'26e sales change by +1.9%, and EBITA adj. changes by +17%.

Company valuation
The share has returned -5.0% L3M (vs. peer median -5.3% and OMXSSMAC +4.4%), and is currently trading at 15x-11x '24e-'26e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 33x-14x.
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