Revenio Q4'25: Market no longer cares about iCare

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/12/2026 at 8:00 am EET.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Revenio and revise our target price to EUR 24.0 (was EUR 26.0). The Q4 result was a clear disappointment, especially regarding profitability, and we estimate that cost pressures will continue in 2026 as FDA studies accelerate. However, the guidance for 2026 supported our growth expectations, and despite the uncertainty, we consider the company's outlook strong. The stock's valuation remains at its lowest levels of the iCare era, and we believe a potential acquisition could bring additional interest to the stock.

Q4 result was exceptionally weak

Revenio's Q4 revenue was 31.2 MEUR (+2.2%), which fell short of our estimate (31.8 MEUR). The negative impact of exchange rates was clearly greater than we anticipated, as currency-neutral revenue grew by 8.6%, which was more than we expected (forecast +7%). Overall, sales performed well in Q4, and the company achieved an all-time sales record in the United States in December. This reduces our concern about the weakening of the company's largest market.

The Q4 gross margin was only 67.6%, while market expectations were generally around 72%. According to the company, the impact of import tariffs and delayed price increases in the US on the margin was around 2 percentage points. The weaker-than-anticipated gross margin weighed on the result by over 0.5 MEUR, and there were also negative non-recurring items of 0.5 MEUR. When we also consider the FX headwinds, the total exceptional items relative to the comparison period amounted to around -2 MEUR. Q4 EBIT was ultimately 6.7 MEUR, while the corresponding figure for Q4'24 was 9.1 MEUR (same as our forecast). On the positive side, cash flow from operating activities was an excellent 15.9 MEUR, and the balance sheet strengthened further. Instead of a dividend proposal, the company's board is seeking authorization to pay a dividend of up to EUR 0.44 per share later in 2026. The rationale for this exceptional decision cited industry consolidation, leading us to believe that Revenio is accumulating cash for a potential acquisition. We kept our dividend estimate of EUR 0.42 per share unchanged, but the company may find better use for the money. 

Guidance in line with expectations, but costs are also increasing

Revenio guided for 2026 constant currency revenue growth of 8-15% and good profitability excluding non-recurring items. In our earnings preview, we expected a range of 7-15%, so the guidance was almost entirely in line with our expectations. We still expect revenue growth of around 11% in 2026. However, profitability forecasts were pressured by persistent strong cost inflation and the significant, albeit temporary, expense of FDA studies for the ILLUME solution in 2026. As a result, the scalability of profitability will remain limited, and we have lowered our 2026 earnings estimates by approximately 10%. Nevertheless, we still expect a significant increase in earnings this year for the first time in a while.

Valuation has been pushed to lowest points of iCare era

The valuation has barely changed, as the decline in the share price and estimates practically canceled each other out. Revenio's EV/EBIT for the current year's forecast is only 15x, whereas during the iCare era, the corresponding multiple has mainly ranged between 20-30x. Although the company's earnings growth has slowed and there is more market uncertainty than usual, we believe this is a clear overreaction. Although the Q4 result was a clear disappointment, market-related uncertainty decreased significantly due to strong Q4 sales and guidance. As a result, we consider it increasingly unlikely that Revenio would suffer significantly from the market situation in the same way as Zeiss. We do not see any significant changes in the long-term drivers and consider Revenio's position in the industry to be very strong, which is why we view the prevailing uncertainty as a buying opportunity. Acquisitions always involve significant risks, but we also consider the strengthening of this option to be positive for Revenio.