Remedy: Forecast model updates

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/17/2025 at 7:00 am EET.

We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and EUR 19.0 target price for Remedy. We have corrected assumptions in our forecast model regarding Control Resonant's assumed revenue sharing ratio with Annapurna for 2027-2028. In addition, we revised our assumption regarding the amortization of Control rights, the timing of which we had forgotten to change in our previous update. As a result of the changes, our 2027 EBITDA forecast increased, but considering all uncertainties, the projected development path for Control Resonant's expected success in our forecasts remains largely unchanged in the big picture. In our view, the upcoming game release will support Remedy's stock over the next year, and we otherwise consider the valuation reasonable given the company's long-term potential.

Changes to 2027-2028 forecasts for Control Resonant

In our previous update, there was a formula error in our forecast model, which resulted in our calculated 30% share of net revenue for Annapurna after recouping the production budget (starting in 2027) being calculated from Remedy's gross revenue before deducting distribution costs. As a result, the costs we had forecast for Remedy were too high in this respect. At the same time, we revised our assumption for the average game sales price for H2'27 to EUR 45 (was EUR 50), which slightly lowered our revenue expectations. Overall, the changes had the greatest impact on our 2027 EBITDA forecast, which now rose to 26.3 MEUR (was 20.4 MEUR). At the same time, we changed the timing of the depreciation schedule for the Control rights on the balance sheet to be weighted towards 2026-2027 (previously 2027-2028), which impacted the EBIT forecasts.

We expect Control Resonant to sell well

At this point, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the forecasts for the coming years, both in terms of the exact release date of Control Resonant and the game's sales volumes. We assume the game will be released in late Q2'26, although we also consider a Q3 release to be very possible. We forecast Control Resonant to sell roughly 1.8 million copies in 2026 and about 2.2 million copies in 2027. As a result, we estimate Remedy's revenue to exceed 120 MEUR in 2026-2027, with EBITDA reaching ~20-26 MEUR. The starting points for strong game sales are good, as the original Control has sold over 5 million copies, and over 20 million players have played the game across various platforms.

We believe the stock will benefit from upcoming game releases

We believe in Remedy’s ability to create multiple high-quality and successful games in the long term, and considering the growth and profitability potential this offers, the company's current valuation is attractive. The long-term potential is indicated by the value of the baseline scenario of the DCF model (EUR 22.6). For Remedy's share value creation, it is essential for the company to succeed with the release of Control Resonant. A successful release would essentially enable the company to finance and publish its next projects itself. It would also further strengthen the value of the Control game brand. Remedy's valuation multiples will also moderate in the coming years (2026e-2027e EV/S ~1.6x and EV/EBITDA - 10x-7x), though they will continue to fluctuate with the timing of future game releases as well. Overall, Control Resonant will generate positive news for Remedy in 2026, in addition to the approaching release of the Max Payne Remake. We believe that Remedy's share price will be boosted by these major upcoming game releases, and, at the current valuation, it is worth holding onto the shares to ride the wave of rising investor enthusiasm.