HomeMaid Q4'25 preview: Momentum intact, risk/reward remains attractive

HomeMaid will publish its Q4’25 report on Friday, February 20, 2026. We expect a strong finish to the year, with revenue growth driven by the consolidation of Rimab and robust seasonal activity in the B2C market. While we have modestly lowered our EBITA estimate to better reflect typical Q4 sequential margin compression, we still anticipate solid earnings growth, supported by the ongoing Rimab turnaround and continued efficiency gains in the core home cleaning business. Our revised estimates had only a minor impact on our fair value, and we view the current valuation keeps the risk/reward attractive, especially considering the M&A optionality that we see in the investment case. Given this, and following our estimate revisions, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation while slightly trimming our target price to SEK 39 (was SEK 40).

We expect a strong finish to the year

We forecast Q4 revenue of 174 MSEK (+29% y/y), with M&A contributing for the majority (~20%) of top-line growth. Q4 represents HomeMaid's seasonally strongest quarter, revenue-wise, as holiday preparations drive household cleaning demand, and we expect organic growth to remain at a high level (Inderes est: 9%). This is anticipated to be supported by continued positive development in the RUT market, intensified marketing initiatives, and improving B2B conditions. In Q4’25, total RUT-deductions and cleaning-specific deductions increased 7% y/y (Q3’25: 6%). While this is slightly below the trailing twelve months’ growth of 8%, we note that data from tax authorities is often lagging due to delayed reporting and tends to be revised upwards over time. Thus, we believe underlying RUT market growth likely remains closer to the 8-9% trend, supporting steady B2C demand. We expect the stable-to-improving economic environment in Q4 will support a continued recovery in the B2B segment, where we expect organic growth of 8%. When including Rimab and one month contribution of B:ME Solution, we expect total B2B revenue of 67 MSEK (Q4’24: 38 MSEK).

Recalibrating estimates to better capture seasonality

Ahead of the Q4 report, we are recalibrating our estimates to better reflect the company's intra-year seasonality. The fourth quarter tends to show sequential EBITA margin compression relative to Q3, which we believe e.g. reflects factors such as increasing marketing expenses during holiday-related activity, reduced B2B volumes and timing of costs. While our earlier estimates already reflected this trend, we believe it underestimated this impact somewhat following the Rimab consolidation. Consequently, we believe our updated Q4'25 EBITA estimate of 14 MSEK (prev. 17 MSEK) now better accounts for this pattern and represents a margin of 8.2% (Q4’24: 8.5%). The year-on-year margin compression reflects the dilutive effect of Rimab, which operates at lower underlying profitability than HomeMaid’s core B2C business. We have made a similar adjustment for the fourth quarter in 2026, as well as for outer-year estimates. We view this more as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental reassessment. These revisions had only a small impact on our estimates and DCF value.

The risk/reward remains attractive

The share price has been volatile following the CEO’s share sale in December. While we view the sale as a small negative signal, it does not have any notable impact on the underlying business performance. On our earnings multiples, HomeMaid trades at 2026e adjusted EV/EBITA of 11x and P/E of 15x, which we view as fairly valued on stand-alone fundamentals, especially those based on EV, relative to our acceptable range (EV/EBITA 9x-12x, P/E 11x-14x). As such, we find the current valuation attractive when considering the M&A optionality we have incorporated into our valuation framework, the expected earnings growth (FY26e: 12%, of which 6% organic), and dividend yield (FY26e: 4.2%). Consequently, we continue to see an attractive risk/reward profile at current levels.