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Research

Gubra (One-pager): From Biotech to Techbio

Gubra
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From an investment perspective, Gubra offers investors a unique risk and return profile by combining: 1) a high-risk high-reward traditional drug discovery activity in its D&P business and 2) a fast growing, positive cash flow CRO business, leading to enhanced stability and synergies from knowledge and resource exchange.

The CRO division has grown revenue quickly (12.4% 3yr CAGR), servicing 16 of the top 20 pharma companies, and historically supporting the D&P business unit with positive cash flow. However, Gubra is shifting some resources towards its D&P pipeline, as it aims to always maintain 1-3 active clinical development projects, which has dropped following its recently announced major partnership with AbbVie (a top-five global pharma company by market cap) for GUBamy, its Phase I amylin-based obesity drug. The deal, worth USD 350m upfront with USD 1.875bn in milestones and additional royalties, underscores Gubra’s ability to develop high-potential pipeline assets. The upfront payment will present large capital resources to accelerate the preclinical UCN2 "healthy weight loss" obesity candidate, set to initiate Phase I in late 2025/early 2026, and support the strategic shift towards more D&P discoveries.

The success of both the CRO and D&P business units has been underpinned by Gubra’s “streaMLine” technology platform, built upon Machine Learning and AI. Gubra also aims to develop one additional technology platform per year, to accelerate the proliferation of drug candidates across indications and support both business units in and outside of obesity, and is actively developing new models for its next platform within Women’s health.

Our DCF scenario analysis based on assumptions described on p2-3 and company guided where possible, currently reflects a market implied probability of success (PoS) of around 27% in the base case. The implied PoS can be benchmarked against the historical likelihood of phase I obesity peptides passing through clinical trials to successful launch of around 26%[1]. The market is currently implying an around benchmark likelihood of success, which could suggest that the further clinical progress of GUBamy and/or UCN2 can be triggers towards increasing the market implied PoS.

Source: 1) GlobalData Inc. via Gubra’s IPO prospectus

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gubra for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 08:05 AM 17-03-2025.

Gubra

508DKK14.03.2025, 17.20

Gubra is a pharmaceutical company. The company's operations are focused on the early stages of drug development. They mainly conduct research and development in the field of metabolic and fibrotic diseases. The company's product portfolio includes several brands and pharmaceuticals, and operations are conducted on a global level, with the largest presence in North America and the Nordics. The head office is located in Hørsholm, Denmark.

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