Fiskars: The divided company waits for a new direction

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/21/2025 at 07:45 am EET

Fiskars’ larger-than-expected profit warning significantly cut our estimates and pushed our target price to EUR 11.5 (was EUR 12). Vita's weak profitability and high valuation keep the expected return weak. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation.

Fiskars downgraded its guidance, our estimates followed

Fiskars downgraded its comparable EBIT guidance for 2025 to 75-85 MEUR from the previous 90-100 MEUR. The company had already stated in connection with the Q3 report that visibility pointed to the lower end of the previous range. The profit warning was expected as such, but the reasons behind it and the magnitude of the guidance cut were partly unexpected. The new range implies Q4 earnings of 31-41 MEUR, which is below the comparison period's 43 MEUR, while the previous guidance expected at least 46 MEUR. We lowered our adjusted EBIT for this year to 80 MEUR to the midpoint of the guidance range. We also lowered our 2026-27 EBIT estimates by 7% as Vita's earnings capability clearly falls below our previous expectations.

Vita's earnings are low this year

Following the new guidance, our adjusted EBIT estimate for the Vita segment is below 30 MEUR this year, implying a margin of under 5%. Earnings have decreased sharply in recent years, as in 2022, Vita still generated earnings of over 80 MEUR and a margin of 15%. Since then, the company has also acquired the Georg Jensen brand, which has brought additional earnings. Vita has not been able to defend its margin level as demand falls. We believe the demand situation will gradually improve, but with the very low earnings starting level, a clearer improvement will take years. Boosting growth will probably require additional investments in marketing, for example. These costs eat into some of the earnings improvement that would normally result from revenue growth. We expect destocking to continue at the beginning of next year and thus continue to weigh on earnings. The normalization of inventory levels supports the improvement of the gross margin and thus EBIT in our estimates from the second half of next year onwards.

Updated strategy and targets coming in early 2026

Fiskars’ strategy period with financial targets ends at the end of this year. The company is far from the targets it set in 2021. We expect the company to announce a new strategy and financial targets separately for the independently operating Fiskars and Vita segments early next year. In this context, the company is planning a CMD during H1’26. The company will finalize the legal separation within the group during Q1’26. After this, we see it as possible that Fiskars would seek to exit the Vita segment by listing it as an independent company or selling it. Vita’s current low performance level may hold back the divestment possibilities.

Valuation still high

Fiskars’ valuation multiples for 2025 (e.g. P/E 25x) are clearly above our acceptable multiples and only within them in 2027. We expect the dividend to decrease next spring, which means the dividend yield in the coming years will be only 3%. Our expected return is slightly negative. Earnings growth forecasts for the coming years require volume growth and a consequent improvement in profitability, which Fiskars has failed to deliver in recent years. Regarding the Fiskars segment, we believe the revenue growth prospects are promising with new product categories, but Vita's growth is, in our view, more dependent on market recovery. This year's earnings have been partly depressed by temporary factors, such as the impact of US tariffs and the destocking of Vita inventories, which we believe will enable a clear earnings improvement next year. Our DCF value is almost EUR 12.