Aspo: Situation in the Eastern market significantly deteriorated
The Russian attack on Ukraine significantly weakens the company's operating conditions in the Eastern market and we have lowered our forecasts. Currently, making forecasts is exceptionally difficult when visibility is very low. Although Asco has excellent evidence of navigating past crises, the current crisis is quite different in scale. Even with forecast decreases, the share price remains favorable, but in the light of the required return that has clearly increased due to the crisis, it’s difficult for us to see any upside in the share, especially as earnings growth turns negative. Therefore, the return/risk ratio has turned neutral as a result of significantly increased risks.
Aspo operates in the transport and logistics industry. The company is run as a conglomerate with the vision of being an active player in the acquisition and development of companies, mainly in the growth markets of Eastern Europe. The industries in which the company has interests include, for example, the grocery retail, industry, and the IT sector. The headquarters are located in Helsinki.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures27.02.2022
| 2021 | 22e | 23e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 586.4 | 569.1 | 580.2 |
| growth-% | 17.1 % | -3.0 % | 1.9 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 42.4 | 38.1 | 40.5 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 7.2 % | 6.7 % | 7.0 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 1.02 | 0.93 | 1.02 |
| Dividend | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| Dividend % | 4.0 % | 7.6 % | 7.7 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 11.1 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
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