Anora Q4’25: Guidance promises a slight earnings increase

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/12/2026 at 07:40 am EET

Anora's Q4 was in line with our estimates. The midpoint of the 2026 guidance indicates an earnings improvement of just over 5 MEUR, in line with the company's medium-term targets. We slightly raised our 2026-27 estimates and expect this year's adjusted EBITDA to be 75 MEUR. With a lower debt level, we raised our DCF value and target price to EUR 4.0 (was EUR 3.8). We reiterate our Reduce recommendation, as we believe the stock's valuation is neutral (e.g., 2026 P/E 10x) and its growth potential is limited.

The Q4 result was in line with our estimate

Anora’s revenue decreased by 5% in Q4, while we expected a 3% drop. Revenue in the beverage segments decreased in line with our estimates, but the decrease was stronger than we expected in both segments. In the Wine segment, the decline was as high as 9%. Although revenue development fell short of our expectations, Anora was able to improve its adjusted EBITDA to 31 MEUR (Q4’24: 29 MEUR), which is slightly above our estimate. The reported result was clearly weaker than our expectations, as the company recorded one-off items related to the efficiency program (4 MEUR), and write-downs of inventories in the Wine segment and trademarks in the Spirits segment (10.5 MEUR). Full-year adjusted EBITDA was 71 MEUR, thus falling into the lower end of the company's 70-75 MEUR guidance range, which was maintained throughout the year. We commented on the Q4 figures in more detail in this comment.

Guidance also largely in line with our expectations

Anora guides adjusted EBITDA of 74-79 MEUR for 2026. The company's new medium-term targets, published in November 2025, aim for an annual earnings improvement of about 5 MEUR in the coming years. The guidance is in line with this. Regarding the market outlook, the company states that the market will remain "structurally challenging" and that volume pressure will continue in 2026 and beyond. This is expected, and the medium-term targets assume a market decrease. We slightly raised our earnings estimates for 2026-27 and now expect this year's adjusted EBITDA to be 75 MEUR. However, we note that Anora has issued profit warnings several times in recent years and ended up at the lower end of its guidance last year.

Value creation still seems difficult

Although we believe Anora can improve its profitability to approximately 80 MEUR by 2028, the company's return on capital is roughly at the level of our required return in our estimates. The company's investment needs are small, and it continues to aim at freeing up working capital, which, in our forecasts, is realized to a limited extent. The growth outlook for the longer term is also subdued, as we do not believe there is any growth in the alcohol market in sight. In an environment of flat or decreasing volumes, the company must continuously improve its efficiency just to compensate for normal cost inflation. Therefore, after the earnings improvement in the coming years, we estimate earnings and cash flow to remain at the same levels in 2028-2034.

Valuation is neutral

Anora's 2025-26 P/E ~10-12x is at the at the level of our acceptable multiples. Anora's expected return is slightly below our required return, with dividends playing a significant role. However, in our opinion, due to the lack of sustainable earnings growth, the dividend yield alone does not meet our required return. A modest return on capital also weakens the risk/reward ratio in our view. The value of our DCF model is in line with the target price at EUR 4.0 per share.