Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/5/2026 at 7:00 pm EET.

Alma Media's Q4 results were well in line with our expectations, and the guidance for the current year points to earnings growth, which fit well with the picture of earnings growth outlined by our estimates. We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts and are therefore revising our target price to EUR 15.0 (previously EUR 15.50) and raising our recommendation to Accumulate (previous Reduce). In our view, the share is attractively priced relative to our forecast of earnings growth outlook. 

Q4 figures in line with our expectations

Alma Media's Q4 revenue grew by 5% to 84.9 MEUR, which was close to our forecast prediction of 6% growth. As expected, Marketplaces led the growth, supported by strong organic growth in addition to inorganic growth. Alma's adjusted EBIT was 21.1 MEUR, which was also in line with our forecast at 21 MEUR. This corresponds to a very good EBIT margin of 24.8%, which also increased year-on-year as a result of improved operational efficiency (Q4’24: 24%). Throughout 2025, Alma Media grew by 5%, mainly driven by acquisitions, and its adjusted EBIT rose by 7% as the company continued to streamline its operations and grow in higher-margin services. Thanks to its strong financial position, Alma Media is raising its dividend to EUR 0.48 per share.

Guidance in line with our forecast

Alma Media issued guidance for 2026, expecting its revenue to remain at the previous year's level and adjusted EBIT to grow. We see the stable revenue outlook as based on a somewhat conservative estimate of the development of the domestic economy. This is driven largely by consumer confidence, which remains low, indicating sluggish investment levels in durable goods as well as in the advertising market. The company is more optimistic about its recruitment business, especially in its Central European markets. Meanwhile, the company expects earnings growth to come from improved efficiency in all segments and growth in high-margin services.

Forecast changes slightly negative

In our view, conservative growth expectations are justified, but we see room for positive growth surprises if the recent positive signals from the Finnish economy materialize. We have made relatively minor downward adjustments (1-3%) to our forecasts for the coming years, predicting 4% revenue growth this year and 8% increase in the result. These reflect, in particular, the growth we forecast for digital and classified income in Marketplaces but also a stronger recruitment market and, thus, growth in Career.

Earnings growth drives expected return

Based on the LTM results, the adjusted P/E and EV/EBIT multiples for the stock are just under 18x and 15x. In our view, considering Alma Media's high return on capital, good cash flow profile, and growth outlook, these valuation multiples are justified. Thus, the expected return is driven by our forecast of robust earnings growth in the coming years (2026-2028 EPS growth-% 10%). Together with our dividend yield forecast of nearly 4%, this brings the expected return into double digits for the coming years, surpassing our required return. The moderate valuation is also suggested by our DCF model, which stands at EUR 15.6 per share. Therefore, we consider the current valuation attractive and find the risk/reward ratio of the stock appealing at its current valuation.