companyName

extensiveId

feedTypes

includeDividend

includeEstimates

includeOverview

includeOwnership

snapshotDate

CompanyName_Query

companySlug

CompanyMetaData

CompanyContent_query

company

query CompanyName_Query(
  $companyName: String!
  $extensiveId: ID
  $snapshotDate: String
  $feedTypes: [ContentType!]!
  $includeEstimates: Boolean!
  $includeOverview: Boolean!
  $includeOwnership: Boolean!
  $includeDividend: Boolean!
) {
  ...CompanyMetaData_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyContent_query_3mc3wd
}

fragment AnalystData on Analyst {
  name
  pageUrl
  jobTitle
  imgUrl
}

fragment AuthorList on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
}

fragment ChangePercentBlock_Company on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    isin
    symbol
    priceData {
      diff1mPercentage
      diff1yPercentage
      diff3yPercentage
      diffFromStartPercentage
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompactFeed_3NXCcw on Query {
  compactFeed: feedContent(companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: $feedTypes}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
        ...TeaserExtraCompact_content
        createdAt
        companies {
          viewerIsFollowing
          id
        }
      }
      cursor
    }
    pageInfo {
      endCursor
      hasNextPage
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyAnalystQuery on Company {
  analysts {
    ...AnalystData
    name
    pageUrl
    jobTitle
    imgUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyContent_query_3mc3wd on Query {
  ...CompanyHeader_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyOwnership_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeOwnership)
  ...CompanyFinancials_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeEstimates)
  ...CompanyDividend_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeDividend)
  ...CompanyInvestorConsensus_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyPageTop_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeOverview)
  ...CompanyPageBottom_query_2bVJwf @include(if: $includeOverview)
  ...CompanyDisclaimer_query_Ux1x9
  ...Extensive_query_3u4Ry5
}

fragment CompanyCoverage_Company on Company {
  analysts {
    name
    id
  }
  isPayingCustomerOf
  isFormerCustomerOf
  isCorporateCustomer
  ...CompanyAnalystQuery
  defaultInstrument {
    ...TargetAndRecommendation_Company
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDescription_Company on Company {
  description
  websiteUrl
  name
}

fragment CompanyDisclaimer_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    isPayingCustomerOf
    isFormerCustomerOf
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDividendER_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    estimateData {
      reportingCurrency
    }
    dividendTransactions: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
      actualized {
        year
        dividend
        dividendYield
        payoutPercentage
        sharePrice
      }
      estimates {
        year
        dividend
        dividendYield
        payoutPercentage
        sharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDividendNonER_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    nonERDividendSet: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: false) {
      year
      dividend
      dividendYield
      epsReported
      sharePrice
      currency
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDividend_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    ...CompanyDividendER_query
    ...CompanyDividendNonER_query
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyFinancials_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    ...NonERCompanyNumbers_query
    ...CompanyNumbers_query
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyHeader_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    id
    companyInsref
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    followersCount
    isCorporateCustomer
    hasPinpointData
    hasDividendHistory
    sector {
      sectorname
      industry
    }
    regions
    extensiveExists
    defaultInstrument {
      symbol
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
        lastPrice
        diff1dPercentage
      }
      marketplace {
        name
      }
      estimates: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        date
      }
      nonERCompanyNumberSet(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        year
      }
      id
    }
    topOwners {
      holders {
        name
      }
    }
    transactions: insiderTransactions(filter: {types: [BUY, SELL, SUBSCRIPTION]}) {
      edges {
        node {
          date
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyInsiderTransactions on Company {
  name
  regions
  insiderTransactions(filter: {types: [BUY, EXERCISE_OF_SHARE_OPTION, PLEDGE, RECEPTION_OF_SHARE_PREMIUM, SELL, SUBSCRIPTION]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        insider
        position
        volume
        price
        date
        unit
        type
        relatedParty
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyInvestorConsensus_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    companyInsref
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyMetaData_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyName_Slug on Company {
  slug
}

fragment CompanyNumbers_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    estimateData {
      modelType
      reportingCurrency
    }
    estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: true) {
      comparisonIndexName
      actualized {
        year
        quarter
        revenue
        revenueGrowth
        ebitda
        ebitAdjusted
        ebitReported
        preTaxProfit
        netEarnings
        epsReported
        epsAdjusted
        dividend
        payoutPercentage
        roePercent
        roiPercent
        enterpriseValue
        bookValue
        marketCap
        gearingPercent
        equityRatio
        dividendYield
        totalCosts
        loanLosses
        balanceSheetTotal
        tangibleBook
        cet1
        rwa
        sharePrice
        sharesTotal
        nav
        navPerShare
        opexOfNav
        totalShareholderReturn
        comparisonIndexReturn
        netDebtTotalAsset
        quarterlySharePrice
      }
      estimates {
        year
        quarter
        revenue
        revenueGrowth
        ebitda
        ebitAdjusted
        ebitReported
        preTaxProfit
        netEarnings
        epsReported
        epsAdjusted
        dividend
        payoutPercentage
        roePercent
        roiPercent
        enterpriseValue
        bookValue
        marketCap
        gearingPercent
        equityRatio
        dividendYield
        totalCosts
        loanLosses
        balanceSheetTotal
        tangibleBook
        cet1
        rwa
        sharePrice
        sharesTotal
        nav
        navPerShare
        opexOfNav
        totalShareholderReturn
        comparisonIndexReturn
        netDebtTotalAsset
        quarterlySharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      companyTransactions: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        actualized {
          year
          revenue
          ebitAdjusted
          epsAdjusted
          dividendYield
          navPerShare
          totalShareholderReturn
        }
        estimates {
          year
          revenue
          ebitAdjusted
          epsAdjusted
          dividendYield
          navPerShare
          totalShareholderReturn
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyOwners on Company {
  regions
  topOwners {
    recordDate
    compareDate
    source
    holders {
      name
      capitalPercent
      votingPowerPercent
      positionChange
      totalSharesChange
      shareChange
      isNew
      isRemoved
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyOwnership_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    ...CompanyOwners
    ...CompanyInsiderTransactions
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyPageBottom_query_2bVJwf on Query {
  ...GeneralFeed_data_3NXCcw
  ...CompactFeed_3NXCcw
  ...UpcomingEventsQuery_Ux1x9
  ...RiskRecommendMatrix_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9
  ...NonERCompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    companyInsref
    ...ForumUpdates_Company
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
  allFeed: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  main: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true, types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT, ANALYST_COMMENT, VIDEO, ARTICLE]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  webcasts: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true, types: [WEBCAST]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  thirdPartyResearch: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [THIRD_PARTY_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  releases: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [STOCK_EXCHANGE_RELEASE, PRESS_RELEASE]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyPageTop_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  ...StockChart_ChartQuery_Ux1x9
  ...LatestReports_query_Ux1x9
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    isFund
    name
    ...CompanyCoverage_Company
    ...CompanyName_Slug
    ...CompanyDescription_Company
    ...FundNumbers_Company
    ...ChangePercentBlock_Company
    ...KeyEstimateFigures_Company
    ...InvestmentCompanyKeyFigures_Company
    defaultInstrument {
      id
      estimateData {
        modelType
      }
    }
    analysts {
      name
      id
    }
    id
  }
  extensiveReport: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysis: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku", "Arvonluojat"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysisArvonluojat: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment Extensive_query_3u4Ry5 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    extensive(extensiveId: $extensiveId, snapshotDate: $snapshotDate) {
      publishedAt
      pageUrl
      content {
        id
        title
        lang
        slug
        htmlBody
        publishedAt
        createdAt
        changedAt
        isOutdated
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment ForumUpdates_Company on Company {
  name
  forum {
    threadUrl
    highlightedPosts {
      url
      author
      authorImgUrl
      text
      postedAt
      likesCount
    }
  }
}

fragment FundNumbers_Company on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    isin
    symbol
    priceData {
      lastPrice
      ath
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment GeneralFeed_data_3NXCcw on Query {
  generalFeed: feedContent(first: 20, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: $feedTypes}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
        ...Teaser_content
        ...TeaserCompact_content
      }
      cursor
    }
    pageInfo {
      endCursor
      hasNextPage
    }
  }
}

fragment InvestmentCompanyKeyFigures_Company on Company {
  marketData {
    marketCap
  }
  defaultInstrument {
    priceData {
      tradeCurrency
      dailyTurnover
    }
    estimateData {
      modelType
    }
    estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: true) {
      actualized {
        year
        quarter
        sharesTotal
        marketCap
        nav
        navPerShare
        dividendYield
        quarterlySharePrice
      }
      estimates {
        year
        quarter
        dividendYield
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment KeyEstimateFigures_Company on Company {
  marketData {
    marketCap
  }
  defaultInstrument {
    priceData {
      tradeCurrency
      dailyTurnover
      lastPrice
      marketCap
    }
    sector
    fundamentalData {
      ebit
      eps
      sales
      dividend
    }
    estimateData {
      modelType
      estimates {
        firstEstimateYear {
          year
          bookValue
          netSales
          dividendA
          epsAdjusted
          ebitAdjusted
          hybridLoan
          noOfShares
          netDebt
          mvMinorities
          mvAssociated
          roePercent
        }
      }
    }
    estimatesSharePrice: estimateTransactions(first: 1) {
      estimates {
        sharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment LatestReports_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  extensiveReport: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysis: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku", "Arvonluojat"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysisArvonluojat: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment NonERCompanyNumbers_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    nonERNumberSet: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: true) {
      year
      quarter
      revenue
      ebitda
      ebitReported
      epsReported
      dividend
      sharesTotal
      roe
      roi
      enterpriseValue
      marketCap
      gearingRatio
      equityRatio
      dividendYield
      sharePrice
      currency
      evSales
      evEbitda
      evEbit
      pb
      netIncome
      ptp
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment NonERCompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      overviewGraphsData: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: false) {
        year
        revenue
        ebitReported
        epsReported
        dividend
        dividendYield
        currency
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment RiskRecommendMatrix_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      riskData: estimateTransactions(first: 1) {
        businessRisk
        valuationRisk
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment StockChart_ChartQuery_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    isFund
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
      marketOpen
      marketClose
      marketplace {
        region
      }
      priceData {
        lastPrice
      }
      returns {
        day
        week
        month
        threeMonths
        sixMonths
        year
        threeYears
        fiveYears
        tenYears
        ytd
        total
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment TargetAndRecommendation_Company on Instrument {
  estimateData {
    modelType
    researchCurrency
    estimates {
      date
      recommendation
      targetPrice
    }
  }
}

fragment TeaserCompact_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  id
  type
  title
  createdAt
  isPremium
  pageUrl
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
  ...AuthorList
}

fragment TeaserExtraCompact_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  title
  createdAt
  pageUrl
  lang
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
  }
}

fragment Teaser_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  id
  type
  title
  createdAt
  pageUrl
  imgUrl
  isPremium
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  publishers {
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
  }
  ... on AnalystComment {
    preview
  }
  ... on Article {
    preview
  }
  ... on CompanyReport {
    preview
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    preview
  }
  ... on QA {
    preview
  }
  ... on Video {
    preview
    liveTime
    videoDuration
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    preview
    liveTime
  }
  ...AuthorList
  ...Reactions
}

fragment UpcomingEventsQuery_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      calendarEvents(first: 10) {
        edges {
          node {
            date
            type
            period
            id
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}


name

description

pageUrl

defaultInstrument

companyInsref

viewerIsFollowing

followersCount

isCorporateCustomer

hasPinpointData

hasDividendHistory

sector

regions

extensiveExists

topOwners

insiderTransactions

isPayingCustomerOf

isFormerCustomerOf

extensive

feedContent

HAV Group

HAV Group ASA: Fourth quarter and interim full-year 2025 financial results

HAV: Invitation to presentation of Q4 2025 financial results

HAV Group: Ship design business to support vessel upgrade

HAV Group: Subsidiary awarded BWTS contracts

HAV Group ASA: Subsidiary to supply ferry chargers to Fjord1

HAV: Notification of trade

HAV: Financial calendar

HAV Group ASA: Third quarter 2025 financial results

HAV: Invitation to presentation of Q3 2025 financial results

HAV Group: Subsidiary secures contract for to supply complete water treatment system to Nordic Halibut

HAV Group ASA: Subsidiary secures wellboat deliveries

HAV Group: New managing director of ship design business

HAV Group ASA: Subsidiary chosen to equip newbuild ferry

HAV Group ASA: Second quarter and half-year 2025 financial results

Invitation to presentation of Q2 2025 financial results - new link to webcast

HAV: Invitation to presentation of Q2 2025 financial results

HAV Group ASA: Subsidiary secures contract for three navigation systems to Tersan Shipyard

HAV Group: Subsidiary secures Greenland contract

HAV: Sale of own shares

Euronext Growth Oslo

HAV Group operates in the energy and manufacturing industries. The company works with the development of energy solutions for the maritime industry. The product portfolio is broad and includes systems for hydrogen energy and ballast management. In addition to the main business, aftermarket service, support and maintenance are offered. Operations are held on a global level, with the largest presence in Scandinavia. The HAV Group was founded in 2021.

Alright, listened to the earnings call. My main observations on the situation:  The growth that started last quarter is indeed accelerating. Guided +80% growth after this kind of growth and at this company scale is something completely unprecedented. Nvidia just did an unbelievable $217B in revenue for FY26. But even more unbelievable is that if/when growth and profitability continue like this, the FY27 operating profit will be in the same ballpark as the currently reported revenue. Absolutely insane. The importance of networking is growing all the time. Networking growth is an incredible 263% y-o-y. The customer base is broadening, and thus customer concentration is becoming healthier. HPC accounts for 50% of DC revenue, and for example, neo-clouds are apparently lowering this figure significantly with their own super-fast growth (and this is despite the massive CAPEX investments from the mega-caps). Really good! China is still essentially a lottery ticket providing upside to the numbers. It’s nice, but it would be much nicer if there were a surer outlook on how Nvidia could compete with its products in that market, which is moving forward at a terrifying pace.  So, compared to the pre-set expectations:  Beat and raise on every line –> CHECK Capacity limiting growth –> NOT REALLY. According to Kress, a balance is now being found, meaning there isn’t really any pent-up demand anymore (excl. Gaming, where memory challenges are limiting supply) Raise to the previously given $500B guidance –> CHECK (not numerical, but they said they’ll clearly exceed this) Confirmations for Rubin production –> CHECK Good news from China as a bonus –> NOT REALLY  Indeed, the stock is still trading flat, which worries me a bit as well. Someone once said that a decline is near when even good news no longer lifts prices. We’ve now had two completely exceptional quarters of accelerating growth behind us and practically only tailwinds for Nvidia, yet it’s trading flat. What about when the first quarter comes where, for example, they “only” deliver growth and profitability in line with guidance and not clearly above it? Clearly, the markets are indeed pricing in a weakening of the CAPEX cycle in the near future, and in my opinion, by buying/owning Nvidia, you are betting against this idea.

As I see it, these -80% predictions practically assume the following:  Ampere and soon also Hopper will be run until the bitter end without replacement investments, regardless of what happens in AI model and architecture development. Or alternatively, model development stops so completely that replacement investments are made with ASICs, where Nvidia’s only card is that Groq licensing deal. In light of current knowledge, this doesn’t seem very likely, as practically more AI progress has been made in the last 2-3 months than in the entire preceding period since the 2017 “All You Need Is Attention” publication. AI Labs and hyperscalers are unable to make their AI and model servicing services profitable (i.e., AI has no impact on the top or bottom line). This directly contradicts the message that mega-techs, neo-clouds, and now even software providers are increasingly indicating. Nvidia would stubbornly cling to current margins even if products were no longer selling at those prices.  What would that -80% mean in practice? Let’s do a rough calculation and assume Nvidia halved its margins with price cuts, ceteris paribus, and the current 39x PE also halved (i.e., fell clearly below the S&P 500 average of about 29x). In this case, the $900B market cap implied by -80% would be reached with about $165B in annual revenue. Subtracting Gaming and OEM etc., DC (Data Center) sales would have to drop to around $140B. Such a scenario is certainly not impossible, but for example, mega-tech cash flows would no longer be a challenge at these price levels. For instance, that $140B is already significantly smaller than, say, Amazon’s cash flow for the coming year alone—just as a scale indicator. I personally don’t doubt the ability of hyperscalers or even leading AI Labs to monetize token generation. Hyper-personalized advertising or other commercial avenues are likely the most obvious on the consumer side, while on the enterprise side, the licensing model is already shifting towards token consumption and agent billing. If I had to guess where a potential spark for CAPEX fears might originate, it would be the very vague financing arrangements of neo-clouds and other new infra players, which could easily drag down a bunch of various financial market players if the shit hits the fan.

OAI for sure—but why wouldn’t other heavily and creatively leveraged/funded model and infrastructure companies also cause uncertainty? As for the tokenomics of OAI—and others as well—yes, at worst, the inference costs for a $20/month subscription can be in the range of $30–80 depending on the model used and the payloads (source: Semianalysis). In other words, they are losing at least tens of dollars on some users per month, in addition to the fact that only an estimated 5% of ChatGPT users, for example, are paying subscribers. How these costs are accounted for is a bit of a question mark. For instance, have GPU hardware costs been included, which might have already been counted as a capex item? Tokenomics isn’t exactly easy or straightforward. Huang was indeed asked how their customers will fund future purchases when cash reserves start running low in a year’s time. This applies not just to OAI, but also to the likes of Meta and Amazon. According to Huang, money for further investment is available because the tokens generated by the companies are revenue. This is true, of course, but not every single token has been successfully monetized yet, and this challenge needs to be solved at least to some extent within roughly the next 10 months.

Let’s summarize yesterday’s GTC highlights, in my opinion:  Vera Rubin “announcement”: a platform of seven chips and five racks, with 10x PPW (performance-per-watt) performance vs. Blackwell. GROQ 3 LPU - this can be combined with the former via VR NV72 Dynamo orchestration so that different workloads are routed to the appropriate computing hardware. Locking in the Feynman (CPU+GPU+LPU combination) roadmap through 2028. Additionally, a “miscellaneous” set of new products, services, and partnerships, e.g., FSD, DLSS 5, model development, OpenClaw architecture, robotics, etc., which probably represent a TAM measured in the tens of billions over some timeframe.  It was an intense delivery for a 2.5-hour keynote once again, and truly a must-watch for anyone with money at stake in the AI scene (which is probably quite a few). Let’s return to the +1000B guidance for 2025-2027. Analysts have also commented on it today, and the consensus seems to be that concerns about capex growth drying up this year or next have vanished, but Wall Street’s forecasts were already pretty much in the ballpark. As I understand it, the guidance only applied to AI hardware. If we ignore a slight mismatch between the fiscal and calendar years, $194B has already been accumulated from that +1000B over the past year. Thus, the order book yet to be filled is about $800B. The Street predicts revenue (all segments):  AVG - 2026 $368B, 2027 $469B, total: $837B HIGH - 2026 $444B, 2027 $626B, total: $1070B LOW - 2026 $333B, 2027 $307B, total: $640B  If we assume that “peripheral items” are about 30B and 40B for CY 2026 and 2027 and subtract them from those revenue forecasts, we get AVG: $760B, H: $1000B, L: $570B as rough datacenter expectations. So, the analysts’ average forecast was off by about 5%. This is likely why the stock didn’t really rise on this news, even though the uncertainty related to growth did dissipate somewhat. What is also noteworthy is that while currently four tech companies account for 60% of revenue, in the future, that segment will also be generated by at least the 103 AI-native companies shown on the slides. So, we will no longer be purely dependent on Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta heading toward 2027.

Reminder: GTC starts today at 8:00 PM with Huang’s keynote               Based on fairly reliable information, a CPU (possibly created through an Intel partnership?) and a brand-new AI inference chip (perhaps a result of a Groq collaboration?) are expected, in which SRAM is in one way or another partially replacing HBM. Rumors mention $20B investments in the development of new products, and these will likely be discussed today.

This kind of “bombshell” came out at GTC:  It says there that 2025-2027 (CY) would be (apparently cumulatively) +1000B in sales. The market jumped +5% immediately, but since then we are already in the red compared to the start of GTC. And understandably so. That sounds like a lot, but it is below market consensus. The cumulative consensus for 2025-2027 (FY) is 1051B and optimistic estimates are as high as +1300B.  These are absolutely insane numbers, but they’re not enough anymore. Edit: I’ll correct this much: it’s likely just the data center segment’s order book. Of course, an estimated at least ~60B will come from other divisions, which puts us slightly above the consensus estimate.

If “this time is different” doesn’t hold true this time, a bold 80% claim might be in the right ballpark. This is without predicting NVIDIA’s development specifically, but rather looking at what has happened in many technological revolutions on the stock market when investors get excited and then, for one reason or another, the enthusiasm wanes. That would, however, require a massive hardware cycle meltdown. Perhaps AI really won’t pay for itself, which would eventually lead customers to pump the brakes on data center construction and use the old capacity that was overbuilt in this scenario. In a way, there are two paths here. Rapid AI disruption would grow the demand for AI products so quickly and cut companies’ costs so fast that it makes sense to increase investments. Or then this revolution isn’t as robust as promised and it can no longer carry its own weight. As has been pointed out many times above in the thread, at the current rate, all of NVIDIA’s customers are starting to see their cash flows tighten.

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