Analyst Comment

WindowMaster: Strong 2026 guidance signals step-change in profitability and growth

WindowMaster has updated its 2025 guidance and, for the first time, provided guidance for 2026. The update points to a clear inflection in profitability, supported by improving order momentum and strong operational gearing.

For 2025, revenue is now expected at DKK 268–275m (previously DKK 270–290m), while EBITDA guidance is narrowed and lifted at the midpoint to DKK 23–26m (previously DKK 22–27m), corresponding to an EBITDA margin of ~8.3–9.7%. While revenue growth is no longer expected in 2025, earnings are set to improve, driven by a more favourable sales mix, with projects and services accounting for a larger share. This supports operating leverage in the people-intensive project and services division.

Full-year order intake for 2025 is expected at DKK 270–280m versus DKK 280m in 2024. While still reflecting a challenging market, this suggests that conditions are stabilising rather than deteriorating. Management highlights improving order intake in H2 2025 and a positive project pipeline, consistent with the picture from H1, where project delays masked intact underlying demand for intelligent indoor climate and natural ventilation solutions.

For 2026, WindowMaster guides for organic revenue growth of 7–14% to DKK 290–310m and EBITDA of DKK 45–55m, implying an EBITDA margin of ~16–17%. This represents close to a doubling of margins year-on-year, underlining very strong operational gearing. The outlook is supported by expectations of a gradually improving business environment during 2026, particularly in H2, driven by energy-efficiency regulation and renovation activity in Europe, with Germany highlighted as a key market. Management notes, however, that uncertainty remains around the timing of when this will translate into firm orders.

It should also be noted that 2025 was impacted by non-recurring costs of DKK 3.5–4.0m, while cost levels and investment spending in 2026 are expected to remain broadly in line with 2025. As such, the earnings uplift is primarily driven by operating leverage rather than incremental cost increases.

The 2026 guidance is close to WindowMaster’s strategic targets of 10–15% annual revenue growth and a profit before tax margin above 10%. Combined with strong cash conversion, higher EBITDA is expected to reduce financial gearing materially, with NIBD/EBITDA well below the 2.0x target by year-end 2026. For reference, NIBD/EBITDA stood at 2.3x at the end of H1 2025, with net interest-bearing debt of DKK 50.4m.

Overall, the update supports the view that 2025 represents a temporary weak year driven by postponed projects, while the 2026 guidance signals expectations that market conditions are bottoming out. Execution risk remains tied to the conversion of the project pipeline into orders and the pace at which regulatory-driven demand, particularly in Germany, materialises.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from WindowMaster for a Digital IR agreement. Michael Friis 15:25, 16/12/2025.

WindowMaster was founded in Denmark in 1990 with the ambition of becoming a strong market leader in the fenestration industry. In 2015, CEO Erik Boyter led a management buy-in and listed the company on the Nasdaq First North Growth Market in Copenhagen in 2020. It has been a family-controlled, listed company since then. WindowMaster offers advanced ventilation strategies, enabling the construction industry to significantly reduce its carbon footprint. Driven by the purpose ‘To create a better world where every person has fresh air indoors and a safe built environment’, the company develops, manufactures, distributes facade and roof automation solutions for hybrid ventilation, natural ventilation, and smoke ventilation systems. WindowMaster’s actuators and control systems enable the flow of fresh air, while actuators ensure window automation. The company also provides project design assistance, ventilation calculation, installation, commissioning, integration opportunities and system training. The company benefits from strong structural tailwinds in the European building industry for both renovation and newbuild. Both applications are supported by increasing regulatory focus on energy efficiency and a more sustainable construction industry. Buildings account for roughly 40% of global energy consumption, with more than two-thirds related to heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and lighting — making WindowMaster’s solutions a high-impact lever for energy reduction. Over the past four years (2020–2024), WindowMaster has delivered profitable growth with a 12% revenue CAGR, while improving both EBITDA and cash flow. The company’s performance has shown greater resilience than the broader building materials sector, underpinned by its exposure to the more stable renovation segment, the highly regulated smoke control market, and growing investments in the green transition. A disciplined capital allocation strategy has created substantial value through investments in innovation, own production capacity, and the global sales organisation. These initiatives have cemented WindowMaster’s strong market position across core markets in Europe and North America. With a robust platform for both organic and inorganic growth, WindowMaster is well positioned to create long-term shareholder value. In 2025, the company paid its first dividend since the IPO, reflecting its healthy financial foundation and commitment to shareholder value.