Tecnotree Q4'25 preview: Takeover bid is the main driver for the stock

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/20/2026 at 7:50 am EET.

Tecnotree will publish its 2025 financial statements release on Wednesday, February 25, 2026. The recently announced takeover bid for the company is currently the main driver for the stock. The company also confirmed its 2025 guidance in connection with the tender offer and issued guidance for 2026, which should therefore not contain any further surprises. For Q4, we expect single-digit revenue growth, very strong profitability in line with guidance, and moderately positive free cash flow.

Growth expected to accelerate

We expect Tecnotree's 2025 revenue to be 71.8 MEUR, which would mean revenue remained at the level of the comparison period. The company has guided for 2025 revenue to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit percentage rate at constant exchange rates. The company's reported growth in 2025 has clearly lagged comparable growth, particularly due to the weakening dollar. However, in constant currencies, the company has grown in line with its guidance (+4.8%). We expect growth to have accelerated in Q4 (reported growth forecast +8%) from the beginning of the year, both in comparable and reported figures. Growth is supported by the company's strong order book (Q3'25: 105.5 MEUR), and we expect the significant deals announced by the company earlier in the year to be more visible in revenue by year-end.

We expect strong earnings but more moderate cash flow

Tecnotree confirmed in connection with the takeover bid that its 2025 EBIT margin is expected to improve by 2.0–2.2% in 2025. Our full-year forecast is in line with this, and we expect Q4 EBIT to be 12.2 MEUR (Q4'24: 10.9 MEUR), which would correspond to a very high margin of 64.6% (Q4'24: 61.7%). The company's profitability typically fluctuates very strongly between quarters, with the Q3 margin at 19%. In our assessment, high-margin deliveries are clearly concentrated towards the end of the year, and the cost burden must also be significantly lower than in previous quarters (which also show strong quarterly fluctuations).

The company has estimated free cash flow to be between 4.5-5.0 MEUR in 2025, which indicates 1.3-1.8 MEUR of free cash flow for Q4.

Guidance is already known

The main focus of Tecnotree's investment story is the ongoing takeover bid. Guidance for 2026 was also provided in connection with the tender offer, so there should be no major surprises regarding the outlook. The company expects low to mid-single-digit revenue growth and free cash flow of over 5 MEUR for 2026.