Modulight Q3'25 preview: Quantum computing project shapes the quarter

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/22/2025 at 7:00 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Modulight will publish its Q3 results on Friday, October 24 at 1:00 pm EEST. The company has shown signs of improvement in recent quarters. We expect to see a clear improvement in Q3 compared to the weak comparison period. Due in part to the timing of the quantum computing project, there is uncertainty in the Q3 figures. During the quarter, the company conducted change negotiations, the scope of which was smaller than preliminary estimates suggested. Visibility into business development remains low, so further information on future developments is welcome.

Order book and increased number of care facilities support revenue

Modulight's current year has been marked by improved development and revenue growth, despite continued losses. This positive development has been driven by growth in the number of care facilities using Modulight products and an increase in the order book. An order of 0.8 MEUR for quantum computing also supported the Q2 figures, and we expect the project to carry over into Q3. However, the lack of detailed information on the timing may lead to surprises in the report. Our Q3 revenue forecast of 1.90 MEUR implies strong growth from the weak comparison period (Q3’24: 0.64 MEUR) and steady development compared to the previous quarter. We expect the Phase III clinical trials announced earlier to generate recurring revenue through ongoing patient enrollment. Revenue is also generated by the ophthalmic laser commercialized in the US starting from 2023, as well as several smaller projects, as is typical.

Our EBIT forecast of -1.33 MEUR signals an improvement from the comparison period (Q3’24: -2.11 MEUR). The forecast is based on an improving gross margin and control of operating expenses. We expect depreciation to increase, which will weigh on the reported result. Modulight capitalizes development costs on its balance sheet, and their total exceeds the level of depreciation. For this reason, the reported result paints a more optimistic picture of the company's earnings performance than cash flow does. Modulight’s net cash was 8.8 MEUR and its cash reserves were 12.3 MEUR. Profitable growth naturally needs to start fairly soon to achieve an earnings turnaround and ensure sufficient cash reserves. During Q3, Modulight held change negotiations that led to layoffs. No further details were provided regarding the timing or duration of the layoffs, so additional information in the report will result in moderate changes to our cost estimates.

Expecting a year of budding growth and reduced losses

Modulight does not provide guidance, but the company's strategic goal for 2023-2025 is strong annual revenue growth and strong profitability at the EBITDA level. These targets were not achieved during the first two years of the strategy period, but there have been upward developments over the past year. The signs are still tentative, and visibility on future developments is low. Therefore, the progress of the earnings turnaround is still uncertain. For the full year 2025, we expect revenue of 8.0 MEUR, but we note that our forecasts have been overly optimistic so far. Our EBIT forecast for 2025 is -5.4 MEUR, which means an improvement on the comparison period (2024e: -8.1 MEUR). The view is based on growing revenue and gross margin, as well as continued tight cost control.