Kempower Q2'25 preview: The company's successes and market recovery support the outlook

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/17/2025 at 09:36 pm EEST

Kempower will publish its Q2 results on Thursday, July 24. The interim report is the first under the leadership of the new CEO, Bhasker Kaushal. Key aspects of the report include the development of the order backlog and potential revisions to the full-year guidance. We feel the company has recently provided strong evidence of its competitiveness and success in customer acquisition. In addition, the accelerating growth in electric vehicle sales volumes supports Kempower's growth prospects, although it may not yet be visible in Q2 order intake.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus: 8 analysts)

There have been good signs for the demand outlook recently

Kempower's orders have been recovering since Q4'24, which is related to, e.g., the normalization of customers' inventory levels and successful new customer acquisition. In addition, the increase in sales volumes of electric vehicles is likely to positively impact demand towards the end of the year. In early July, the company announced that Allego, one of the largest charging operators in Europe, has selected Kempower as its primary supplier of charging solutions. We consider this customer gain a sign of the competitiveness of Kempower’s solutions, and Kempower has also performed well in reliability statistics for various charger models. We also estimate that new customer acquisition in North America has progressed favorably. We estimate that new orders have grown to 71 MEUR in Q2 (up 31% y/y), slightly exceeding the consensus estimate (65 MEUR).

We also expect an increase in delivery volumes

We expect Kempower's revenue to have reached 67.9 MEUR in Q2, representing a 19% increase y/y. The order book at the end of Q1 was 106.5 MEUR, i.e. 5% lower year-on-year, but we estimate that the shorter delivery times mean that a larger proportion of the Q1 order book will be delivered to customers already during Q2. If revenue recovers as we expect, profitability could also return to positive territory. Our EBIT forecast for Q2 is 1.6 MEUR, which is significantly higher than the comparison period (-8.5 MEUR). Profitability is particularly supported by the normalization of the gross margin, as the gross margin in the comparison period suffered from, e.g., inventory write-downs. The consensus expects both revenue and EBIT to be lower than our forecasts.

Narrowing the guidance range could become relevant

Kempower guides for revenue growth of 10-30% y/y in 2025 and a significant improvement in EBIT from 2024 (2024 -26.4 MEUR). Our current growth forecast is in the middle of the range. The company's visibility on 2025 revenue has likely improved significantly now that the H1 order book is known, which could lead to a narrowing of the guidance range for revenue growth in connection with the Q2 report. We expect revenue and orders to grow towards the end of the year, which will also support profitability. Our 2025 revenue growth forecast (20%) and EBIT forecast of -1 MEUR are slightly more positive than the consensus (17% growth and EBIT: -5 MEUR), but the difference is mainly explained by differences in Q2 forecasts (H2 forecasts in line with consensus).