Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/20/2025 at 07:51 am EEST

GRK's raised guidance was not a surprise to us, and our estimates for the current year were above the old guidance ranges. The scale of the positive earnings revision was slightly stronger than our estimate, as our current year estimates are at the very bottom of the new guidance ranges for both revenue and adjusted EBIT. Thus, the positive earnings revision at least decreases estimate risks and the share's risk level. We will update our estimates and stance on GRK's shares in connection with our preview, if necessary.

GRK's projects have progressed well across the board

GRK issued a positive earnings warning yesterday regarding its current year's revenue and adjusted EBIT. GRK now estimates that its revenue  will be 820–870 MEUR (previously 730-800 MEUR) and its adjusted EBIT will be 57–64 MEUR (previously 45-55 MEUR) in 2025.

According to the company, the positive development of its revenue and EBIT has continued in Q3. The order book to be recognized as revenue for the rest of the year has also grown more strongly than expected during late summer and fall. Similarly, GRK's project estimates for the rest of the year have been refined. The earnings guidance assumes that large projects will proceed mainly according to plans and that all projects will generate revenue in line with the order book margin in 2025.

The positive earnings revision was expected as such, but slightly stronger than we estimated

The positive earnings revision was, in our view, largely expected, considering GRK's very strong H1 figures, the order book being at a good level both quantitatively and probably also qualitatively at the end of Q2, and its normal order book turnover rate. In our current forecasts, we expect GRK's revenue to grow this year by 13% to 826 MEUR and adjusted EBIT by 25% to 57.0 MEUR. Thus, our estimates exceeded the old ranges and are at the very bottom of the new guidance ranges, and therefore, the positive earnings revision was slightly stronger than we expected.  

The earnings revision also confirmed that the current largest customer, Stegra's needs to raise additional funding  (comment here), will not cause any problems for GRK at the Group level in the near future. Thus, with the positive earnings revision, the risk level associated with this year's estimates and the share at least decreased slightly. Estimates may be subject to upward pressure, at least for the current year. We will update our GRK estimates and stance on the company if necessary in connection with our preview. GRK will publish its Q3 report on October 30.