GRK Q4'25 preview: Strong year behind

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/5/2026 at 8:00 am EET.

GRK will publish its 2025 financial statements bulletin on Thursday, February 12, 2026, and the company's earnings release can be followed here at 1:30 pm EET. We expect GRK to deliver a solid close to a very strong financial year, even though several projects progressed faster than anticipated, shifting some of the year-end revenue and earnings to earlier quarters. The report will focus particularly on the guidance for 2026, as we expect the company's largest single project to date, the Stegra steel plant project, to conclude during the current year.

We expect revenue to fall short of the comparison period after a strong Q3

We keep our 2025 forecasts unchanged for revenue at 860 MEUR and adjusted EBIT at 62 MEUR (guidance 820-870 MEUR and 57-64 MEUR). We estimate GRK's revenue in the fourth quarter to have been 196 MEUR. We expect revenue to decrease from the comparison period (Q4'24: 214 MEUR), partly due to several significant projects progressing and completing faster than expected already in Q3. We expect GRK's adjusted EBIT to have been 13.4 MEUR in Q4. This corresponds to an adjusted EBIT margin of 6.8% and is slightly below the seasonal peak of the third quarter. The company's project management has been excellent in the recent past, and we expect this to be reflected in the full-year figures as well. Profitability is further supported by the healthy margin structure of the order book, even though competition has intensified in certain segments. We believe cost development has remained stable during the end of the year. On the other hand, a lower volume level in our forecasts weighs on relative profitability compared to the comparison period.

Alliance project implementation schedules are central to full-year guidance

The most important aspect of the report is the company's outlook and guidance for 2026. We currently forecast GRK's revenue and earnings to decline in 2026 (revenue forecast 800 MEUR and adjusted EBIT 51.9 MEUR), as it is challenging to fully compensate for the gap left by the Stegra project in Sweden in the short term. On the other hand, this year's volume is affected by the launch of the company's development-phase projects and their schedules (especially Rail Baltica and the Turku tramway). Regarding the Vantaa light rail, a contract was signed during Q4 for the implementation of the first phase (first phase ~45 MEUR, total 140 MEUR). In addition, GRK was selected to carry out earthworks and build bridges for the Norrbotniabanan railway in Northern Sweden. The contract is valued at around 158 MSEK, or 14.5 MEUR. Although the recently won contract is small for GRK, the Norrbotniabanan project as a whole is very significant and, in our view, will support the company's Swedish business volumes in the longer term.

Regarding the order backlog, attention is drawn to its total level (683 MEUR at the end of Q3'25) and the won project portfolio outside the order backlog, which was around 500 MEUR at the end of September. For investors, the allocation of the company's strong cash position is also key. We expect a strong dividend payout (estimate EUR 0.62 per share, slightly over 50% of earnings, corresponding to a dividend yield of ~4.4%). In addition to dividend distribution, the balance sheet also enables acquisitions, for which we expect a strengthening news flow this year, especially in the Swedish market.