Finnish trade grew in September

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/3/2025 at 9:09 am EET.

According to figures reported by PTY, the grocery consumer market relevant to Kesko grew by 3.5% in September, while the target market for Tokmanni, i.e., sales of non-grocery products in department store and hypermarket chains, increased only by 1%. Growth was relatively even across all sub-segments. Since Kesko has already reported its Q3 figures, the statistics do not provide much new information regarding the company.

Kesko's growth roughly in line with the market in September

Kesko's grocery sales to K Group grocery stores grew by 4.0% in September. When comparing this figure to PTY's, however, it should be kept in mind that Kesko is a wholesale supplier in the grocery trade (with individual stores as retailers), while PTY's figures measure retail trade. It should also be noted when comparing figures that there was one more delivery day in wholesale trade in September than in the comparison period, but the number of retail sales days is typically the same (stores are open every day). On the other hand, not all products sold in K Group stores come from Kesko, which also affects the comparison of Kesko's and PTY's figures. Kesko commented that its market share improved during Q3 but remained negative. In Foodservice, Kesko's sales grew by 2%, while market development was just under 3%. These figures are comparable, so Kesko lost a small amount of market share in foodservice. Kesko reported its Q3 figures last week already.

Market growth for Tokmanni sluggish in September

The revenue of the department store and hypermarket chains of Finnish Grocery Trade Association (PTY) member companies continued to grow by 3% overall in September compared to the previous year. However, this growth was driven purely by grocery sales, which increased by 5.3%. For Tokmanni, whose sales are relatively less dependent on grocery products, monitoring the development of non-grocery sales in department stores and hypermarket chains is clearly a more relevant indicator. In terms of non-grocery products, revenue fell by 1.2% in September, whereas in August the same market grew by 2.1% and in July by 7.3%.

We currently forecast a 4% growth in Tokmanni segment revenue in Q3, which is slightly above the July-September development of the Finnish consumer goods market after a sluggish September. However, we do not anticipate major pressure to change our estimates based on this, as, despite our sales growth estimates, we expect a slight decline in earnings for Q3 in Finland. This is mainly because the brisk growth in margin structure achieved in July was weaker than in the comparison period in our records, due to the delayed season forcing accelerated inventory reduction with discounts. Additionally, we believe that the company's fixed costs have risen, similar to the previous quarter, due to increased marketing expenses to boost sales.