Anora Q3'25 preview: Flat year-on-year development in forecasts

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2025 at 7:30 am EET.

Anora will report its Q3 results on Friday, October 31, at 8:30 am EET. Although the comparison period is relatively weak, we expect Anora's revenue to be flat year-on-year and the result to improve only marginally. Our estimate for the full-year adjusted EBITDA is below the company's guidance (67.5 MEUR vs. guidance 70-75 MEUR), so we see a slight reduction in guidance as possible in connection with the results.  

The markets have remained subdued

Last year's Q3, and September in particular, was weak for Anora and led to a downgrade in the company's guidance about a year ago. Despite the weak comparison period, in light of the figures for the Finnish and Norwegian markets (which are publicly available at this stage), the markets have remained sluggish. It should be noted, however, that these markets represent a minority of Anora's sales. We expect Anora's Q3 revenue to remain at the level of the comparison period. We predict a 3% decline in the Wine segment, reflecting the decrease in filling services that weighed on revenue earlier in the year. On the other hand, the company was able to improve its market share in Sweden in H1, which we expect to have continued. We expect the revenue of the Spirits and Industrial segments to be at the level of the comparison period.

Slight improvement in earnings expectations

In terms of earnings, we expect the Wine segment to improve its result despite a small decrease in revenue. This is supported by the exceptionally weak gross margin in the comparison period, which we expect to improve. In addition, Anora has been able to keep the fixed costs of the Wine segment lower than in the comparison period, which we believe will also support the result in Q3. From the Spirits segment, we expect a result on par with the comparison period, while from the Industrial segment, we expect a slight year-on-year decrease from strong levels. Overall, we forecast the Group's adjusted EBITDA to rise to 16.5 MEUR from 15.9 MEUR in the comparison period.

Downward risk in guidance

Our forecast for the full year's adjusted EBITDA is 67.5 MEUR, which includes an assumption of a Q4 result roughly at the same level as the comparison period. Anora has guided for an adj. EBITDA of 70-75 MEUR, so we see a risk of the guidance being lowered. Q4 is, however, the company's most important earnings quarter, and thus a potential guidance cut could also come later this year. The guidance assumes that market volumes will remain roughly at last year's level, which implies an improvement during the rest of the year.