Anora Q2'25 flash comment: Earnings fell slightly short of expectations and the comparison period

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/15/2025 at 09:10 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)

Anora's revenue declined significantly in Q2, contrary to our expectations, and also pushed earnings slightly below the comparison period's level, while we expected a slight improvement. The company, however, reiterated its full-year guidance for 70-75 MEUR adj. EBITDA. Our estimate has been at the lower end of the guidance, and a weak Q2 puts downward pressure on estimates.  

Revenue in the beverage segments fell surprisingly

Anora's revenue decreased by as much as 7% in Q2, when we expected it to be at the comparison period's level. Revenue from beverage sales (Wine and Spirits segments) fell significantly (9%), while we expected the timing of Easter to support slight growth. Anora underperformed the development of the Nordic markets (-2%) in Q2, and it reports that the market shares of the Spirits segment declined in all countries and that wine sales suffered in Norway and Denmark. In Sweden, the market share of wines improved as in the beginning of the year. Revenue declined slightly less than we expected in the Industrial segment. 

Earnings fell short of expectations and the comparison period due to weak revenue

Due to weak revenue, Anora's adjusted EBITDA was 14 MEUR, while in the comparison period it was 15 MEUR, and we expected 17 MEUR. Earnings deteriorated in the beverage segments, especially in the Wine segment, which also missed our estimate the most. The Industrial segment improved slightly from the comparison period and was in line with our forecast. In the Wine segment, the gross margin decreased slightly from the comparison period and was weaker than our estimate, which, together with lower revenue, explains earnings falling short of our estimate. The gross margin of the Spirits segment, however, improved slightly in line with our estimate, but lower revenue pushed earnings below our estimate and the comparison period. With the earnings remaining subdued, net debt/adj. EBITDA remained rather high at 3.0x. 

Guidance unchanged

Despite the weak result, Anora reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 70-75 MEUR. Our forecast before the Q2 result was 70 MEUR, and the comparison period outcome was 69 MEUR. For H1 as a whole, the company is 2 MEUR behind the comparison period, so the guidance requires H2 to be at least 3 MEUR better than the comparison period. We believe this is realistic, but considering Q2's weak market share/volume development, it requires a trend change in the company. However, most of the company’s earnings are made later in the year, especially in Q4. 

Anora slightly lowered its market assumption and now expects the markets to be "relatively flat" in terms of both volumes and value, whereas previously it expected volumes to be at the same level and value to grow. According to Anora, market volumes have decreased by 5% in the Nordics year-to-date, so the market also needs to develop more positively in H2 for the assumption to be met. In the comparison period, Q3 in particular was relatively weak, so a small improvement is possible, but we believe full-year market development will nevertheless remain negative.  

Efficiency measures accelerated, strategy revised – CMD in November

In connection with the earnings release, Kirsi Puntila, who started as CEO in March, also stated that the company will accelerate measures to improve financial performance, although the earnings release did not specify what this means. The company also announced it is preparing a strategy update, focusing on improving short- and medium-term performance in 2025-26 and supporting growth from 2026 onwards. Anora announced that it will host a CMD on November 5, where it will provide more information about its strategy update.