Fiskars Q3'25 preview: Q3 earnings likely to be clearly below comparison period

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/14/2025 at 07:30 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance, 4-6 analysts (consensus)

Fiskars’ year has continued as difficult, and we still expect the company to have to cut its guidance for a second time this year. Due to the recent decrease in the share price, we raise our recommendation to Reduce (was Sell), but reiterate our EUR 12 target price.

We expect a subdued Q3 result

In its pre-silent period call, Fiskars commented that demand in the US continued to be subdued, and we believe price increases compensating for tariffs are not yet visible in Q3. In addition, the company has been subject to new tariffs, which increase the overall negative impact of the tariffs. Although the demand situation appears better in other markets, we expect Q3 revenue to have decreased by 4% to 246 MEUR and adj. EBIT has clearly decreased from the comparison period's 24 MEUR to 16 MEUR. However, this would be a clear improvement from the Q2 level of only 3 MEUR. The consensus forecast is slightly higher in terms of EBIT (19 MEUR). We expect a weakening, especially in the Fiskars segment, where around half of the revenue comes from the US, and which thus also clearly suffers from US tariffs as Fiskars' products are mainly produced outside the US.

A profit warning still seems likely

Fiskars lowered its guidance in connection with the June profit warning and expects full-year adjusted EBIT to be 90-110 MEUR, compared to 111 MEUR last year. The company's H1 result was 14 MEUR weaker than last year, so a performance at the level of the comparison period in H2 would take it slightly below the midpoint of the guidance. Considering the continued headwinds from US tariffs and weak demand in Q3, an H2 result on par with the comparison period would, in our view, be a very strong achievement. Our 2025 adjusted EBIT estimate is 85 MEUR, and, therefore, we expect the company to have to issue another profit warning. In our forecasts, almost half of the company’s earnings are generated in Q4, where direct consumer sales in the Vita segment play a significant role. Thus, the success of the Christmas season can be crucial for the company to reach its guidance. The company can thus stick to its guidance in the Q3 report, even if the earnings were at the level of our expectations. We make no estimate changes in this report.

As separate companies into the next strategy period

Fiskars’ strategy period with financial targets ends at the end of this year. The company is far from the targets set in 2021. We expect the company to announce a new strategy and financial targets separately for the independently operating Fiskars and Vita segments either at the end of this year or early next year. The separation of the companies within the Group will be completed at the beginning of next year. After this, we see it as possible that Fiskars would seek to exit the Vita segment by listing it as an independent company or selling it. However, Vita’s current low performance level may hold back these possibilities.

Valuation still high

Despite the share price drop, Fiskars’ valuation multiples for 2025 (e.g. P/E 24x) are above our acceptable multiples and only within them with 2026 forecast. Although we expect a dividend decrease next spring, Fiskars offers a 4-5% dividend yield in the coming years. Supported by this, the expected return is around zero. Profit growth forecasts for the coming years require volume growth and a consequent improvement in profitability, which Fiskars has failed to deliver in recent years. On the other hand, the company should be able to compensate for the direct impact of US tariffs by price increases next year, which supports profitability improvement. Our DCF value is around the current share price.