Aktia Q2'25 preview: Steady ride towards bottom of net interest income on the cards

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/1/2025 at 7:30 am EEST.

We expect Aktia's earnings to have decreased from the comparison period due to a lower net interest income and slightly increased credit losses. In addition to the figures, our attention in the earnings report will be focused on the development of the loan portfolio quality and management's comments on the outlook for loan demand, which we expect to be cautiously positive in tone, as macro-level loan data shows slight signs of recovery.

Net interest income declines; revenues below the comparison period

Aktia will report its Q2 results on Tuesday morning at around 8:00 am EEST. We expect net interest income to have continued its decline both compared to the comparison period and moderately also compared to the previous quarter. We expect credit demand to remain moderately subdued, although a slight pick-up in lending should gradually bring the loan book back to moderate growth.

We expect fee income, in turn, to have remained roughly flat year-on-year. Asset management sales have continued to be weak, at least in traditional investment funds, where net subscriptions were negative by over 40 MEUR in Q2. Although assets under management remain below the comparison period's level in our forecasts, we estimate other fee income to have offset this impact.

We estimate that other items have developed quite steadily, so overall, we expect Aktia's operating income to fall below the comparison period to 73.2 MEUR due to the decline in net interest income.

Declining earnings in expectations

We expect Aktia's comparable expenses to have decreased slightly from the comparison period, which is explained by the decrease in the depreciation level. Adjusted for this, we expect moderate expense growth, mainly driven by general cost inflation. However, the bank is expected to record one-off costs associated with the CEO change, in addition to the ongoing transformation program.

We expect credit losses to have slightly increased to 3.1 MEUR (0.15% of the loan book) as payment delays continued to grow in the early part of the year.

As a result of these factors, we expect Aktia's comparable operating profit for Q2 to have been 26.7 MEUR. Our estimate for the quarter's comparable earnings per share is EUR 0.30, which would still represent a decent return on equity of just over 12%.

Eyes on the development of credit demand

Aktia's current earnings guidance includes an expected decline in comparable operating income (124.5 MEUR in 2024). The company expects its net interest income to decline in line with interest rates, while net commission income is expected to increase slightly. In addition, costs are rising due to IT investments and inflation. The company is likely to reiterate these estimates in the Q2 report, as there are no immediate signs of a return to growth.

In addition to the earnings figures, our focus is on the development of credit demand, as macro data suggests that a slight recovery should already be visible. The recent twists and turns in the tariff tumult also partly ease the outlook, as the worst fears of an escalation of the situation seem to have subsided. Although, among other things, lower interest rates, rising real wages and recovery measures in other EU countries may offer relief to Finland's economic development, the unemployment rate is still high. In addition, there is still considerable general uncertainty in the air. Therefore, material demand growth is likely to be delayed until at least next year.

Among the news flow earlier in the quarter, the announced CEO change is noteworthy, as Aleksi Lehtonen, who had only been on the payroll for about a year, stepped aside for Carl Haglund (our comment on the change can be read here). The new CEO will start no earlier than the end of the year, so until then, Anssi Huhta will serve as interim CEO, who is also responsible for Aktia's banking operations. The company already disclosed the background to the change publicly in connection with the announcement, so significant new information related to this is unlikely to be forthcoming.